NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	107		Excitement	8.3 [234]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +22.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	115		Comeback	4.1 [562]		LVP	Reggie Evans (SEA): -8.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.23	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.11	-0.01	18	64%	0.23	0	0.00	8	87%	0.04
Chris Webber	0.15	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.17	0.05	13	68%	0.32	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.05	0.00	6	86%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Eddie House	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.06	0.04	-0.10	0.00	20	55%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	16	50%	0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	8	62%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.05,0,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.00	13	56%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.01	23	61%	0.11	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.06
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	16	57%	0.16	2	-0.10	8	87%	0.04
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	45%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	100%	0.06
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	2	60%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.8	30.0	19.6	27.3	2.7	41.3	149.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -43.1%

SEA +38.1%

SEA +43.4%

SEA +15.7%

SAC -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SEA	NBA	SAC	SEA	NBA
this game	14.8	15.7	15.5	113.8	121.1	104.0
season	14.7	16.5		108.1	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.6		107.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.2	16.1	15.5	15.5	14.8
SEA	16.6	13.9	17.3	15.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	40	41	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.12	7	-15	22	14.4	15.0	-0.66	16.9	14.8	2.13
Eddie House	12	12	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-11	14	14.6	14.8	-0.20	14.8	15.8	-1.01
Matt Barnes	29	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.10	-5	-3	-2	15.2	14.6	0.65	15.0	16.0	-1.07
Maurice Evans	8	8	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	0	-8	15.4	14.7	0.68	12.7	16.0	-3.24
Cuttino Mobley	81	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-9	10	14.4	16.7	-2.25	15.9	14.7	1.20
Peja Stojakovic	88	89	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-6	4	14.5	18.2	-3.64	16.0	11.2	4.86
Darius Songaila	59	60	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.15	-12	4	-16	15.4	13.7	1.75	14.6	17.5	-2.89
Mike Bibby	82	83	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.24	-11	3	-14	14.8	14.6	0.20	15.8	14.8	1.01
Chris Webber	71	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.25	-13	5	-18	14.8	14.6	0.25	16.0	14.9	1.07

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	46	44	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-7	22	14.7	16.6	-1.89	15.8	13.8	1.96
Antonio Daniels	52	52	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-6	20	14.6	17.0	-2.39	15.0	14.4	0.59
Vladimir Radmanovic	65	65	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.21	13	-5	18	14.8	17.7	-2.85	15.0	14.1	0.89
Ray Allen	83	80	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-1	10	15.8	15.0	0.82	14.4	16.6	-2.22
Rashard Lewis	76	77	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	4	0	16.1	14.3	1.75	14.5	15.8	-1.30
Danny Fortson	33	33	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	4	0	15.0	16.1	-1.10	15.2	14.5	0.75
Jerome James	30	29	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	13	-18	17.7	14.8	2.85	14.1	15.0	-0.89
Reggie Evans	40	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.01	-6	14	-20	17.0	14.8	2.26	14.2	15.2	-1.01
Luke Ridnour	50	50	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	16	-24	16.5	14.9	1.57	14.6	14.9	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.36,0.68,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.45,0.53,0.36,0.85,0.91,1	92.0%
SAS 93, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.69,0.92,1	91.7%
SAS 95, CLE 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.55,0.58,1	91.3%