NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	8.3 [194]		MVP	Bonzi Wells (POR): +14.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	98		Comeback	3.4 [377]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -32.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.02	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	70%	0.11	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Danny Ferry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.07,0.01,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	9	68%	0.15	3	-0.20	4	0%	-0.10
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	0.00	-0.07	-0.01	11	55%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	6	29%	-0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.06,-0.33,-0.33	0.00	-0.31	0.02	20	68%	0.01	7	-0.34	10	60%	-0.11

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.05,0.17,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.14	-0.02	20	52%	0.19	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.07
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	14	59%	0.17	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	6	69%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	11	52%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	12	46%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	10	33%	-0.06	2	-0.11	7	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	586.7	2.7	27.1	-699.5	28.3	3.4	39.5	-11.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +4.2%

POR +2.3%

SAS -11.4%

POR +51.6%

POR +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	POR	NBA	SAS	POR	NBA
this game	16.1	17.2	15.6	108.1	112.6	102.3
season	15.8	16.0		104.3	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.2	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.4	16.3	17.5	15.3	16.1
POR	16.6	20.7	15.2	16.7	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	63	65	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.11	7	-12	19	16.4	15.3	1.17	17.5	16.3	1.20
Malik Rose	29	30	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.04	-1	-4	3	15.4	16.5	-1.11	14.7	18.5	-3.82
Mark Bryant	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-5	5	0.0	16.1	-16.12	2.0	17.3	-15.35
Tony Parker	72	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.31	1	-6	7	15.6	18.7	-3.10	16.8	19.1	-2.37
Antonio Daniels	34	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	3	-11	16.4	15.9	0.49	17.9	16.7	1.19
David Robinson	67	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-6	7	16.2	15.9	0.28	18.7	11.8	6.89
Danny Ferry	48	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	16.3	15.9	0.40	18.3	15.8	2.50
Tim Duncan	76	75	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.33	-10	5	-15	16.3	14.4	1.94	17.0	18.2	-1.15
Steven Smith	41	43	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.44	-11	6	-17	16.1	16.2	-0.08	15.6	18.7	-3.15

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Kemp	53	52	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.34	17	-12	29	16.2	18.7	-2.52	16.7	15.2	1.55
Scottie Pippen	64	63	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.35	11	-6	17	16.9	17.8	-0.89	17.2	13.2	4.02
Damon Stoudamire	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	0	5	18.3	10.2	8.13	16.4	14.1	2.32
Bonzi Wells	67	66	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-1	7	16.4	19.8	-3.41	16.1	16.3	-0.24
Dale Davis	71	71	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	6	-7	17.2	17.1	0.13	15.4	19.5	-4.14
Steve Kerr	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	4	-3	2.0	17.3	-15.35	0.0	16.1	-16.12
Rick Brunson	4	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	8	-11	12.7	17.4	-4.64	11.0	16.4	-5.43
Rasheed Wallace	20	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	9	-13	17.6	17.0	0.62	15.3	16.4	-1.06
Ruben Patterson	40	39	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	8	-11	18.4	16.1	2.36	16.3	16.0	0.35
Derek Anderson	40	39	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.12	-4	9	-13	17.3	17.0	0.28	15.3	16.8	-1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.69,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 81, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	93.3%
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	92.2%
MIL 94, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.87,0.96,1	91.8%