NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	7.1 [430]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +21.2%
Dallas Mavericks	109		Comeback	5.2 [367]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -16.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.08	0.02	14	71%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	3	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	18	61%	0.11	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.05	-0.00	7	64%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	7	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	24	54%	-0.02	5	-0.14	6	83%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.2,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	15	71%	0.19	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.01	12	69%	0.14	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	15	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.07	0.00	11	48%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	31%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	26.5	17.0	21.8	1.8	33.2	127.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +19.5%

DAL +9.1%

DAL +21.6%

DAL +3.7%

MIA -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.2	15.5	108.3	112.4	104.0
season	15.7	14.9		107.9	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	15.9	15.7	16.5	15.7
DAL	12.4	14.8	14.3	15.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	28	28	0.55	-1.05	1.61	0.08	16	-21	37	17.5	14.9	2.59	16.7	13.1	3.55
Michael Doleac	23	22	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-5	5	14.1	16.2	-2.12	13.3	14.4	-1.14
Udonis Haslem	76	76	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.42	11	-16	27	15.7	15.6	0.06	14.5	12.8	1.78
Eddie Jones	55	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-6	7	15.5	15.9	-0.40	14.1	14.2	-0.04
Rasual Butler	55	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-6	7	16.0	15.3	0.62	15.0	13.0	1.99
Shandon Anderson	23	23	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	11	-27	15.9	15.6	0.23	12.9	14.6	-1.68
Damon Jones	63	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	11	-27	15.0	17.0	-1.98	13.1	16.3	-3.21
Shaquille O'Neal	73	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	0	-5	16.2	14.1	2.12	14.4	13.3	1.14
Dwyane Wade	84	84	-1.01	0.51	-1.52	-0.51	-17	12	-29	15.5	17.2	-1.77	13.6	17.8	-4.17

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	67	64	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.46	4	1	3	14.6	13.2	1.33	16.2	14.7	1.56
Josh Howard	58	57	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-3	11	14.0	14.4	-0.34	15.8	15.6	0.18
Jason Terry	74	75	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	-1	7	13.7	15.7	-2.02	16.1	14.4	1.69
Jerry Stackhouse	63	63	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	4	-3	14.4	13.6	0.78	15.7	15.8	-0.09
Dirk Nowitzki	79	77	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	4	-3	14.3	13.3	1.01	15.7	15.6	0.08
Marquis Daniels	33	34	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	-9	23	14.0	14.2	-0.19	15.4	15.9	-0.49
Shawn Bradley	10	11	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.07	4	1	3	12.2	14.4	-2.18	16.0	15.7	0.34
Devin Harris	23	21	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	6	-7	15.7	13.7	2.02	14.4	16.1	-1.69
Alan Henderson	19	19	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	7	-9	14.4	14.1	0.33	14.9	15.9	-1.00
Michael Finley	59	59	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.03	-10	15	-25	13.6	15.0	-1.43	15.5	16.1	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.35,0.22,0.19,0.36,0.55,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 82, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.54,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.53,0.72,1	89.8%
DAL 105, DEN 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.68,0.9,1	89.3%
POR 89, DET 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.63,0.86,0.74,1	89.2%