NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	79		Excitement	7.8 [312]		MVP	Antoine Walker (ATL): +27.6%
Atlanta Hawks	80		Comeback	1.8 [749]		LVP	Grant Hill (ORL): -29.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.16	0.03	0.14	0.02	10	67%	0.21	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Steve Francis	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0.09	-0.04	0.12	-0.01	19	50%	0.16	2	-0.07	10	80%	0.05
DeShawn Stevenson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Andrew DeClercq	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	8	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.3	-0.08	-0.20	0.03	15	56%	-0.14	6	-0.15	4	75%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,0.28	0.28	-0.15	0.42	-0.01	13	37%	0.39	4	-0.11	6	50%	-0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.22	0.22	0.02	0.19	-0.01	14	57%	0.31	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	11	71%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Obinna Ekezie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	9	56%	0.01	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	11	29%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	0.3	27.2	15.6	27.2	1.7	36.2	134.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +83.0%

ORL -21.4%

ORL -12.4%

ORL -0.6%

ATL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	14.7	16.4	15.5	86.8	85.1	104.0
season	14.3	15.6		102.9	98.1
opponent	15.1	15.5		108.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.7	16.4	13.8	12.8	14.7
ATL	15.0	15.6	16.2	19.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	5	5	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.00	2	-3	5	12.2	14.8	-2.60	23.8	16.0	7.77
Tony Battie	61	65	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.49	17	-18	35	13.8	16.5	-2.70	17.5	14.1	3.39
Doug Christie	64	66	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.37	10	-11	21	14.1	16.0	-1.91	16.6	16.1	0.48
Andrew DeClercq	9	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.08	-7	6	-13	18.3	14.3	4.08	14.6	16.6	-1.99
Grant Hill	69	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.41	9	-10	19	14.3	15.7	-1.35	16.4	16.5	-0.13
Steve Francis	82	85	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.49	5	-6	11	14.2	19.0	-4.82	16.6	15.1	1.48
Jameer Nelson	23	23	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	10	-21	16.7	14.0	2.67	15.2	16.9	-1.69
Pat Garrity	26	27	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	11	-23	16.8	13.8	2.95	16.3	16.5	-0.21
Hedo Turkoglu	32	36	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.03	-15	14	-29	16.2	13.8	2.31	14.9	17.4	-2.57
Dwight Howard	84	83	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.46	-3	2	-5	14.5	17.1	-2.69	16.2	18.2	-1.96

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	47	44	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.44	14	-13	27	15.7	17.1	-1.40	15.2	14.2	0.97
Predrag Drobnjak	56	56	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.48	7	-6	13	16.7	16.0	0.75	14.9	14.2	0.70
Al Harrington	85	82	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.48	-2	3	-5	16.4	17.2	-0.86	14.5	16.1	-1.61
Josh Childress	48	44	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	-6	13	15.6	17.3	-1.76	15.7	13.7	2.07
Antoine Walker	73	70	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.51	-7	8	-15	17.2	13.8	3.46	13.7	17.8	-4.10
Tony Delk	63	62	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.06	3	-2	5	16.7	16.0	0.71	15.5	12.8	2.79
Josh Smith	23	23	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	-2	5	15.0	16.9	-1.86	15.1	14.5	0.57
Tyronn Lue	53	52	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.31	-15	16	-31	16.7	16.2	0.49	13.6	16.1	-2.48
Obinna Ekezie	22	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.00	-5	6	-11	17.1	16.2	0.84	14.0	14.9	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.85,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 98, SAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.54,0.6,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.57,0.73,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.72,1	92.9%
NJN 80, IND 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.81,0.94,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
NOH 97, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	92.6%