NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	5.9 [675]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +13.8%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.4 [1016]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -7.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	28	55%	0.15	4	-0.08	9	100%	0.05
Jason Terry	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	13	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	16	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	13	50%	-0.01	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	12	73%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.03	-0.04	6	64%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	17	62%	0.15	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	12	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	8	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.6	31.1	17.7	27.0	2.8	42.1	152.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +27.9%

SAS +9.4%

SAS +16.8%

DAL -6.2%

SAS +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	17.1	15.5	105.6	108.9	104.0
season	14.9	16.3		108.2	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		98.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	16.0	16.8	12.3	14.9
SAS	17.1	15.3	18.4	17.7	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	15	16	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.06	7	-10	17	16.0	14.7	1.29	16.0	17.3	-1.31
Calvin Booth	23	27	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.09	5	-8	13	17.5	14.0	3.43	17.5	16.9	0.58
Darrell Armstrong	13	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-9	15	8.9	15.9	-7.01	15.7	17.3	-1.63
Devin Harris	14	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	0	-3	15.7	14.8	0.94	17.9	16.9	1.01
Jason Terry	69	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-1	-1	15.3	13.7	1.58	17.3	16.4	0.85
Michael Finley	85	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	0	-3	14.5	21.4	-6.86	16.9	19.0	-2.06
Dirk Nowitzki	89	89	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	2	-7	15.0	9.0	5.99	17.0	22.0	-4.98
Alan Henderson	57	54	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.09	-16	13	-29	14.9	14.9	0.07	16.5	18.0	-1.49
Jerry Stackhouse	85	85	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.46	-4	1	-5	14.8	16.6	-1.78	17.6	7.8	9.82

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	70	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-3	9	17.2	16.5	0.68	14.5	16.3	-1.84
Manu Ginobili	68	68	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-4	11	17.0	17.4	-0.44	14.5	16.2	-1.73
Bruce Bowen	68	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.45	-3	6	-9	17.5	15.9	1.55	15.0	14.7	0.23
Tony Parker	65	63	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.39	-1	4	-5	17.6	15.8	1.71	15.1	14.4	0.68
Beno Udrih	24	26	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	-4	11	16.5	17.3	-0.79	14.8	15.0	-0.11
Robert Horry	29	31	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.01	7	-4	11	16.4	17.4	-0.93	16.5	14.1	2.33
Rasho Nesterovic	53	50	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	6	-9	17.2	16.9	0.22	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Brent Barry	22	23	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	-1	5	17.3	17.0	0.26	15.5	14.7	0.75
Malik Rose	23	23	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	2	-1	16.8	17.2	-0.34	16.1	14.5	1.62
Devin Brown	27	29	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.25	-7	10	-17	16.6	17.3	-0.75	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Mike Wilks	1	1	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	6	-9	0.0	17.3	-17.27	4.0	15.0	-11.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.89,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, LAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.65,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
CHI 88, WAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
ATL 104, MIL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.6%