NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	5.1 [839]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +12.2%
Golden State Warriors	91		Comeback	1.7 [391]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): -15.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.03	-0.00	16	69%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.04	4	82%	0.10	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.03
Wesley Person	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	54%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.15	0.01	-0.07	15	52%	-0.01	5	-0.06	20	40%	-0.13

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.05	6	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	22	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	60%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	11	53%	-0.04	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	11	54%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.04	10	35%	-0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	10	27%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	10	10%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	28.6	16.4	22.6	3.4	33.5	131.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +67.6%

GSW -9.1%

GSW -0.2%

GSW -10.2%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.5	15.6	15.5	105.4	98.9	104.0
season	15.7	15.0		107.9	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	15.0	13.4	17.9	15.5
GSW	15.4	16.3	17.3	13.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	68	67	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.21	15	-8	23	14.5	18.4	-3.97	15.8	15.1	0.71
Damon Jones	63	62	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.09	19	-12	31	14.2	18.3	-4.13	16.3	14.1	2.22
Udonis Haslem	70	70	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-5	17	15.8	14.7	1.18	16.0	14.4	1.56
Shaquille O'Neal	69	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	-6	19	14.8	17.7	-2.98	15.9	14.7	1.26
Eddie Jones	76	75	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	0	7	15.7	14.6	1.16	15.6	15.4	0.23
Wesley Person	23	22	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	7	-7	17.3	14.9	2.40	15.9	15.5	0.41
Michael Doleac	24	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.15	-6	13	-19	17.7	14.8	2.98	14.7	15.9	-1.26
Christian Laettner	23	22	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	12	-17	14.7	15.8	-1.18	14.4	16.0	-1.56
Keyon Dooling	30	30	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.21	-12	19	-31	18.3	14.2	4.13	14.1	16.3	-2.22
Rasual Butler	19	20	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.03	-8	15	-23	16.3	15.3	0.98	14.4	15.9	-1.47

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	25	26	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-11	15	15.6	15.6	0.00	17.8	14.7	3.10
Zarko Cabarkapa	13	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.02	-2	-5	3	14.3	15.8	-1.50	14.9	15.7	-0.72
Clifford Robinson	47	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-5	3	15.9	15.3	0.56	17.2	13.8	3.41
Mike Dunleavy	39	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-1	-5	16.3	15.1	1.14	14.9	16.0	-1.04
Adonal Foyle	48	48	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-6	5	15.2	16.0	-0.86	14.2	16.9	-2.70
Mickael Pietrus	58	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-7	7	15.0	16.6	-1.66	15.8	15.1	0.69
Speedy Claxton	76	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	1	-9	15.6	15.7	-0.11	15.2	17.2	-2.08
Troy Murphy	76	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	2	-11	15.9	14.1	1.78	15.4	15.9	-0.50
Derek Fisher	78	79	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.29	-11	4	-15	15.7	14.8	0.96	15.3	17.0	-1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, HOU 94	0.5,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.05,0,0,0	95.0%
DEN 108, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0	94.9%
UTA 107, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.2,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0	94.9%