NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	100		Excitement	8.9 [149]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +45.6%
Washington Wizards	104		Comeback	1.8 [804]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): -25.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.37	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.37,0.37	0.08	0.28	-0.01	13	68%	0.44	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.16	-0.01	0.17	0.00	3	75%	0.21	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Derek Anderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Sebastian Telfair	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richie Frahm	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.09	0.00	-0.10	0.00	2	75%	0.10	1	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	15	50%	-0.04	3	-0.09	4	25%	-0.04
Damon Stoudamire	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.01,0.01,-0.17	-0.00	-0.17	0.00	23	49%	-0.13	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.46	0.46	0.18	0.24	-0.04	16	74%	0.46	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.12
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.13	0.13	-0.01	0.11	-0.02	20	55%	0.19	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	6	72%	0.12	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	3	50%	0.02	1	0.01	2	100%	0.01
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	7	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	27%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.27,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.20	-0.06	-0.01	17	28%	-0.19	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	29.2	15.6	27.2	0.6	39.2	137.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +19.6%

POR -8.2%

WAS +1.3%

WAS +42.7%

POR -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	WAS	NBA	POR	WAS	NBA
this game	16.6	14.9	15.5	109.9	113.0	104.0
season	15.8	14.7		101.2	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		105.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.8	22.5	18.1	13.2	16.6
WAS	12.8	18.8	14.6	14.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	33	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-4	4	16.9	16.4	0.54	13.1	15.9	-2.81
Sebastian Telfair	17	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-6	8	16.2	16.7	-0.51	17.3	14.2	3.14
Travis Outlaw	20	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-6	8	18.6	16.0	2.57	15.8	14.6	1.13
Richie Frahm	25	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.30	7	-11	18	13.0	18.0	-5.01	14.5	15.0	-0.55
Theo Ratliff	45	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-5	6	15.5	17.7	-2.19	16.7	12.9	3.89
Joel Przybilla	47	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.12	-5	1	-6	17.3	15.8	1.46	12.9	16.7	-3.89
Nick Van Exel	69	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-6	8	16.2	17.7	-1.44	14.3	16.7	-2.41
Damon Stoudamire	72	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-7	10	16.5	16.8	-0.25	14.1	17.8	-3.78
Derek Anderson	23	23	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	11	-26	18.8	15.8	2.99	17.1	14.1	2.99
Ruben Patterson	72	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	0	-4	16.1	18.6	-2.51	14.6	15.8	-1.13
James Thomas	32	32	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	9	-22	19.0	15.3	3.71	17.1	13.7	3.38

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	51	49	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-1	6	14.0	16.0	-1.91	16.4	16.8	-0.40
Larry Hughes	81	82	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.31	10	-6	16	14.5	17.7	-3.22	16.2	19.8	-3.53
Gilbert Arenas	76	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	1	2	14.0	19.2	-5.28	16.6	16.7	-0.19
Michael Ruffin	20	20	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-7	18	16.4	14.5	1.99	18.3	16.1	2.25
Brendan Haywood	68	67	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	5	-6	14.4	16.3	-1.89	16.7	16.4	0.24
Etan Thomas	23	23	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	0	4	17.0	14.2	2.75	17.1	16.4	0.66
Jarvis Hayes	24	24	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.00	6	-2	8	17.7	13.9	3.75	19.5	15.5	4.00
Juan Dixon	28	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	8	-12	18.0	13.5	4.47	17.2	16.4	0.84
Antawn Jamison	63	63	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.02	-5	9	-14	14.2	16.4	-2.22	16.5	16.9	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.86,0.71,0.61,0.47,0.63,0.84,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 89, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.52,0.68,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.84,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.45,0.58,1	91.4%
HOU 82, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.66,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.57,0.58,1	90.8%
VAN 77, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.84,1	90.2%