NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	98		Excitement	5.9 [672]		MVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): +17.0%
Sacramento Kings	94		Comeback	5.1 [116]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -12.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.06	-0.01	12	73%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	10	55%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	-0.12	0.12	-0.05	19	51%	0.18	6	-0.13	13	62%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	10	45%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	11	42%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	11	59%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	12	54%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	46%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	65%	0.08	7	-0.16	2	100%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	16	47%	-0.03	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	0.06	24	51%	-0.03	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	27.6	15.8	25.3	2.3	39.6	135.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +32.0%

GSW +3.3%

GSW +6.4%

GSW +8.3%

GSW +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	15.5	101.0	96.9	104.0
season	15.0	14.7		102.3	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.2		106.4	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.8	18.2	13.6	14.7	15.7
SAC	13.2	15.4	15.2	12.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	83	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-1	6	15.5	16.9	-1.38	13.4	17.4	-3.91
Clifford Robinson	52	54	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	-12	28	16.4	14.8	1.60	14.1	13.8	0.31
Mike Dunleavy	49	49	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	-10	24	16.3	15.0	1.26	14.3	13.7	0.64
Speedy Claxton	58	57	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	-4	12	15.8	15.4	0.41	12.9	15.6	-2.66
Troy Murphy	66	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	3	-2	15.7	15.6	0.05	13.0	16.2	-3.20
Adonal Foyle	30	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	2	0	16.2	15.5	0.70	16.5	12.8	3.64
Mickael Pietrus	50	49	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.43	-9	13	-22	15.0	16.4	-1.45	13.5	14.5	-0.97
Derek Fisher	40	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	7	-10	15.0	16.1	-1.07	15.3	13.0	2.31
Eduardo Najera	43	42	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.48	-13	17	-30	14.9	16.3	-1.43	14.0	14.0	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	14	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	5	-6	16.9	15.5	1.38	17.4	13.4	3.91

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	32	31	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.13	7	-11	18	15.9	13.1	2.83	14.8	16.1	-1.28
Doug Christie	75	74	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.29	9	-13	22	12.7	18.5	-5.75	16.5	12.9	3.63
Maurice Evans	53	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-2	0	15.0	12.8	2.18	15.8	15.6	0.23
Brad Miller	82	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.42	-3	-1	-2	14.2	13.2	0.96	16.3	12.2	4.05
Chris Webber	79	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	7	-18	13.2	17.6	-4.42	15.6	16.0	-0.39
Peja Stojakovic	87	89	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.46	-5	1	-6	14.0	14.1	-0.10	15.0	23.5	-8.52
Mike Bibby	77	77	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.27	-15	11	-26	14.5	12.1	2.41	15.4	16.8	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 105, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.26,0.15,0.24,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.9%
PHI 104, POR 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%
BKN 111, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.13,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.4%