NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	90		Excitement	6.6 [536]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +32.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	96		Comeback	2.4 [760]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -10.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.02	0.11	-0.00	10	58%	0.17	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Smush Parker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	19	53%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	15	57%	0.04	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	4	83%	0.07	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	8	50%	-0.06	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.34,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.23	0.01	17	74%	0.45	4	-0.13	5	100%	0.10
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	5	80%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.17	-0.01	0.04	11	83%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	7	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	-0.04	13	38%	0.04	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	6	57%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	29.1	16.4	23.5	2.3	36.5	134.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +42.2%

DET -2.0%

DET -1.6%

MIL +9.3%

MIL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.5	103.4	110.3	104.0
season	16.7	16.0		103.5	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.9		107.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.3	15.7	16.4	15.1	16.4
MIL	16.0	15.6	16.4	19.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	28	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-9	12	16.3	16.4	-0.12	14.0	18.0	-3.98
Darvin Ham	28	25	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.21	2	-8	10	17.4	15.9	1.46	17.7	16.4	1.33
Antonio McDyess	47	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	2	-10	16.3	16.4	-0.06	17.6	15.7	1.84
Smush Parker	13	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.16	-13	7	-20	21.0	15.6	5.45	16.1	16.9	-0.77
Tayshaun Prince	72	71	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	16.6	15.5	1.09	16.8	16.3	0.52
Richard Hamilton	79	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-5	4	15.9	20.9	-4.96	16.5	19.2	-2.77
Chauncey Billups	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-5	4	16.4	16.1	0.30	16.6	17.4	-0.86
Rasheed Wallace	77	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-1	-4	16.0	19.2	-3.20	16.9	14.9	2.05
Lindsey Hunter	20	21	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	1	-8	14.5	16.9	-2.43	18.2	16.3	1.92

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	71	70	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-6	18	16.7	16.9	-0.17	16.2	17.2	-1.08
Mike James	41	41	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-3	12	17.1	16.4	0.73	16.2	16.5	-0.33
Desmond Mason	46	49	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.10	12	-6	18	17.4	16.0	1.44	17.8	14.6	3.18
Michael Redd	77	76	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.33	3	3	0	16.6	18.0	-1.43	15.8	20.1	-4.26
Zaza Pachulia	56	55	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	3	0	17.0	16.3	0.74	16.5	16.2	0.33
Dan Gadzuric	43	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	1	4	16.9	16.6	0.34	16.9	15.9	0.92
Keith Van Horn	46	48	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.14	-1	7	-8	16.1	17.4	-1.33	15.4	17.5	-2.12
Marcus Fizer	32	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	9	-12	16.7	16.7	0.02	17.3	15.8	1.44
Erick Strickland	23	23	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.08	-10	16	-26	15.6	17.1	-1.53	15.7	16.6	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.69,0.54,0.45,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 78, ATL 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.55,0.57,0.83,1	90.6%
MEM 84, LAL 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.32,0.72,1	90.1%
SEA 89, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.84,0.85,1	89.7%