NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	96		Excitement	6.8 [482]		MVP	Caron Butler (LAL): +15.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	100		Comeback	1.9 [826]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -40.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Mason	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.12	-0.03	0.01	16	70%	0.12	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Zaza Pachulia	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	15	56%	0.19	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Erick Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	11	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Michael Redd	-0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.28,-0.26,-0.26,-0.4	-0.20	-0.22	-0.02	8	30%	-0.10	6	-0.30	4	100%	0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	-0.00	13	59%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.00	7	64%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	0.00	12	63%	0.14	1	-0.06	3	0%	-0.04
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	75%	0.09	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Vlade Divac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	5	67%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	24	52%	0.09	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.02
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	24.3	15.4	27.6	1.7	35.6	132.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +24.0%

LAL +10.1%

MIL -17.4%

LAL +33.1%

LAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	LAL	NBA	MIL	LAL	NBA
this game	16.5	14.7	15.5	104.3	107.5	104.0
season	16.0	15.7		104.4	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.0		108.8	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.7	14.8	16.0	18.5	16.5
LAL	13.9	17.1	12.3	15.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	22	23	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.09	13	-17	30	14.8	17.0	-2.15	17.1	13.9	3.24
Zaza Pachulia	31	31	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.17	10	-14	24	16.9	16.2	0.63	18.3	12.9	5.45
Marcus Fizer	37	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.39	10	-14	24	17.1	16.1	1.00	17.2	13.1	4.11
Mo Williams	21	22	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.06	-10	6	-16	18.3	15.9	2.37	12.4	15.4	-2.99
Mike James	71	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.44	6	-10	16	15.9	18.3	-2.37	15.4	12.4	2.99
Dan Gadzuric	43	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	8	-20	16.6	16.3	0.23	12.8	16.4	-3.59
Keith Van Horn	57	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	8	-20	16.0	17.2	-1.15	12.9	17.6	-4.71
Desmond Mason	62	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.46	4	-8	12	16.2	16.9	-0.71	15.3	13.4	1.95
Michael Redd	57	57	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.28	-13	9	-22	17.2	15.2	2.07	14.5	15.1	-0.60
Joe Smith	59	60	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.22	-16	12	-28	16.3	16.8	-0.47	13.0	17.8	-4.76

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	74	72	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-8	20	13.6	18.7	-5.09	16.9	14.7	2.24
Kobe Bryant	87	85	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-3	10	14.5	18.0	-3.54	16.3	18.7	-2.44
Caron Butler	80	79	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	1	2	14.2	17.8	-3.67	16.9	13.6	3.31
Chucky Atkins	68	66	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.23	4	0	4	13.7	17.2	-3.49	16.2	17.2	-0.97
Brian Cook	31	32	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.31	-3	7	-10	18.7	12.7	5.98	16.4	16.5	-0.13
Chris Mihm	71	70	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	0	4	13.4	18.9	-5.47	16.5	16.3	0.18
Tierre Brown	25	26	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.16	0	4	-4	17.2	13.7	3.49	17.2	16.2	0.97
Jumaine Jones	13	13	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	3	-2	17.8	14.2	3.67	13.6	16.9	-3.31
Kareem Rush	6	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	7	-10	18.0	14.5	3.54	18.7	16.3	2.44
Vlade Divac	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	9	-14	19.2	14.1	5.06	12.9	16.9	-3.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.56,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 123, PHX 130	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.7,0.85,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%
DET 86, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.42,0.69,0.81,0.82,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.3%
NJN 87, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.2%