NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	71		Excitement	4.4 [954]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +7.3%
San Antonio Spurs	91		Comeback	1.0 [1289]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -14.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dale Davis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ansu Sesay	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	15	41%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	53%	0.04	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	56%	0.00	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.17	-0.02	-0.07	13	26%	-0.12	1	0.00	8	62%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	12	69%	0.12	3	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	16	52%	0.00	1	0.00	12	42%	-0.07
Tony Massenburg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	10	20%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.8	29.0	15.8	25.3	2.5	27.2	127.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.0%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +0.7%

SAS +6.7%

SAS +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	14.8	15.5	75.5	97.8	104.0
season	15.0	16.3		102.3	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.2		98.4	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.7	16.6	13.3	18.3	15.9
SAS	15.6	16.1	15.5	12.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-21	22	7.0	16.0	-9.04	13.0	14.9	-1.89
Ansu Sesay	16	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-17	14	15.5	16.0	-0.54	16.4	14.5	1.91
Derek Fisher	59	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.20	-11	-9	-2	16.2	15.5	0.78	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Mike Dunleavy	63	61	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-16	12	15.1	17.7	-2.58	15.2	14.2	1.06
Eduardo Najera	10	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-14	8	19.0	15.6	3.42	15.1	14.8	0.27
Adonal Foyle	35	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-12	4	16.7	15.5	1.13	15.8	14.3	1.54
Troy Murphy	58	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-8	-4	16.2	15.6	0.63	14.6	15.2	-0.52
Clifford Robinson	31	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-13	6	15.6	16.1	-0.45	15.2	14.7	0.52
Dale Davis	58	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	-8	-4	15.7	16.4	-0.72	14.3	15.7	-1.33
Calbert Cheaney	37	37	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-13	6	17.6	14.9	2.76	15.1	14.7	0.38
Jason Richardson	55	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.12	-15	-5	-10	15.0	17.3	-2.37	14.8	14.9	-0.04
Speedy Claxton	47	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	-4	-12	16.0	15.9	0.02	13.7	16.0	-2.32

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	66	67	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.14	25	-5	30	14.9	14.6	0.31	17.2	12.9	4.24
Manu Ginobili	61	60	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.10	18	2	16	14.8	15.0	-0.18	16.3	15.3	1.07
Bruce Bowen	46	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	11	-2	16.0	13.7	2.28	16.1	15.8	0.32
Rasho Nesterovic	62	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.05	9	11	-2	14.3	15.9	-1.63	15.0	17.8	-2.82
Devin Brown	33	31	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.15	12	8	4	12.6	16.1	-3.48	16.5	15.7	0.90
Mike Wilks	21	21	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	11	-2	15.6	14.6	0.93	17.0	15.7	1.29
Malik Rose	52	53	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	16	-12	15.4	14.2	1.17	15.6	16.4	-0.79
Beno Udrih	24	23	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.07	9	11	-2	13.6	15.3	-1.65	17.7	15.4	2.26
Tony Parker	48	50	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	18	-16	15.1	14.5	0.61	14.7	17.3	-2.58
Brent Barry	46	48	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	19	-18	15.4	14.3	1.07	14.9	17.0	-2.11
Tony Massenburg	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	15.0	14.8	0.16	15.0	16.0	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.76,0.86,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 89, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
UTA 104, SAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	95.2%
NJN 85, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.81,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%