NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	4.6 [931]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +11.4%
Seattle SuperSonics	113		Comeback	1.6 [935]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -19.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	4	80%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.02	0.05	12	70%	0.04	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	23	43%	-0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	7	29%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.01	16	40%	-0.09	5	-0.10	10	90%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.04	0.04	20	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.04	5	87%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	17	63%	0.11	4	-0.10	9	100%	0.04
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	11	62%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Swift	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	8	58%	0.00	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.03
Jerome James	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	2	40%	-0.03	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.0	31.0	14.8	25.0	1.8	39.2	135.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +30.1%

SEA +8.0%

SEA +1.3%

SEA +12.0%

SAS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.5	103.3	121.5	104.0
season	16.3	16.5		105.8	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.6		107.9	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	19.7	16.0	15.8	12.2	15.6
SEA	14.6	16.7	19.2	13.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	41	41	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-17	15	15.1	16.1	-1.03	17.6	14.1	3.52
Robert Horry	19	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.10	-6	-13	7	12.1	16.6	-4.53	13.0	16.4	-3.40
Devin Brown	46	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	-12	5	15.8	15.4	0.38	14.6	16.7	-2.05
Beno Udrih	16	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	-10	1	12.1	16.4	-4.26	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Manu Ginobili	50	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.11	-3	-16	13	15.4	16.0	-0.57	17.7	13.2	4.52
Tony Massenburg	21	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-12	5	17.9	15.0	2.89	16.2	15.5	0.73
Brent Barry	49	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	-7	-5	15.3	16.0	-0.63	13.6	18.0	-4.47
Malik Rose	34	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-11	3	15.9	15.5	0.39	14.6	16.3	-1.72
Tony Parker	75	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-9	-1	16.4	12.1	4.26	15.8	15.3	0.51
Bruce Bowen	37	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	-3	-13	16.1	15.3	0.84	16.8	14.8	2.08
Tim Duncan	67	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.05	-15	-4	-11	16.2	14.1	2.05	15.6	15.7	-0.09

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	77	74	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.19	22	-3	25	15.7	15.7	-0.03	15.2	17.4	-2.18
Rashard Lewis	83	80	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.12	17	2	15	15.2	19.2	-3.96	15.7	15.3	0.41
Vladimir Radmanovic	56	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	7	5	14.3	17.7	-3.38	15.1	16.5	-1.33
Nick Collison	22	23	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.02	10	9	1	16.5	15.4	1.15	18.8	14.6	4.27
Antonio Daniels	54	52	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.08	12	7	5	15.1	16.4	-1.24	15.2	16.2	-0.99
Jerome James	47	47	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.18	15	4	11	15.1	16.2	-1.13	15.9	15.3	0.57
Luke Ridnour	39	39	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	12	-5	16.4	15.1	1.24	16.2	15.2	0.99
Danny Fortson	43	40	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	13	-7	16.4	15.0	1.40	15.7	15.6	0.11
Reggie Evans	41	40	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	19	-19	17.7	14.1	3.56	15.9	15.5	0.42
Damien Wilkins	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	17.0	15.7	1.35	1.0	15.8	-14.80
Robert Swift	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	17.0	15.7	1.35	1.0	15.8	-14.80
Mateen Cleaves	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	17.0	15.7	1.35	1.0	15.8	-14.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 90, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
MEM 87, CHA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.63,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
LAL 81, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%