NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	108		Excitement	7.0 [414]		MVP	Kwame Brown (WAS): +22.2%
Washington Wizards	114		Comeback	2.4 [702]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -18.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	14	71%	0.15	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Vlade Divac	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	9	56%	0.07	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.04
Mike Bibby	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	15	59%	0.16	5	-0.19	4	100%	0.03
Doug Christie	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.07	-0.05	0.05	10	85%	0.11	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.07	0.02	14	50%	-0.06	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.04

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.07	0.02	16	77%	0.26	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Mitchell Butler	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.13	-0.03	11	54%	0.18	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	9	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	19	51%	0.14	4	-0.12	3	67%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.01	29	44%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	0.6	23.2	15.4	24.4	0.1	38.2	127.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +17.9%

SAC -12.5%

WAS +19.2%

WAS +27.6%

SAC -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	WAS	NBA	SAC	WAS	NBA
this game	12.9	16.9	15.7	112.5	117.5	100.5
season	14.7	15.2		106.9	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.6		102.4	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.2	11.2	16.4	12.2	12.9
WAS	16.2	19.2	17.0	15.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlade Divac	53	53	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.03	5	-11	16	13.2	12.5	0.70	17.1	16.8	0.24
Anthony Peeler	31	29	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.01	2	-8	10	12.8	12.9	-0.15	18.8	16.1	2.68
Doug Christie	94	95	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-2	-2	12.8	15.0	-2.17	16.9	19.5	-2.61
Mike Bibby	84	85	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-3	0	12.6	14.8	-2.24	16.9	17.3	-0.44
Brad Miller	72	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	-2	-2	12.2	14.9	-2.67	17.1	16.4	0.74
Peja Stojakovic	79	82	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.30	-13	7	-20	13.3	11.1	2.21	16.4	19.9	-3.53
Chris Webber	67	69	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.30	-13	7	-20	13.3	11.8	1.55	16.7	17.6	-0.98

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitchell Butler	90	89	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-3	12	16.6	21.9	-5.29	13.2	8.7	4.49
Jerry Stackhouse	63	61	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	1	4	17.5	15.9	1.55	12.7	13.1	-0.42
Kwame Brown	97	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	16.9	0.0	16.95	12.9	0.0	12.87
Gilbert Arenas	97	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	16.9	0.0	16.95	12.9	0.0	12.87
Brendan Haywood	35	35	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-9	24	17.1	16.8	0.30	15.4	11.4	3.93
Etan Thomas	55	55	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.28	-7	13	-20	16.8	17.2	-0.38	11.7	14.5	-2.82
Lonny Baxter	7	6	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	8	-10	17.3	16.9	0.36	9.3	13.1	-3.78
Jared Jeffries	41	42	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.03	-2	8	-10	17.0	16.9	0.00	12.4	13.2	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.56,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.78,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 117, BKN 122	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.64,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.82,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.95,1	92.7%
UTA 94, HOU 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.84,0.9,0.99,1	92.7%
MIL 80, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	92.3%