NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	10.7 [31]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (NOH): +28.5%
New Orleans Hornets	100		Comeback	6.7 [214]		LVP	Eddy Curry (CHI): -42.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.25	0.08	0.18	0.01	29	54%	0.29	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	7	86%	0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	10	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Linton Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	9	60%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Ronald Dupree	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	80%	0.02	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	2	50%	-0.11	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.04
Eddy Curry	-0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.33,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42	-0.19	-0.22	0.01	17	32%	-0.21	4	-0.22	4	50%	-0.04

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.15,-0.26,0,0,0,0,0,0.29	0.28	-0.08	0.36	-0.00	26	44%	0.31	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.05
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.09	0.16	-0.00	15	69%	0.30	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.02	0.00	9	82%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.03
Steven Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	6	23%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.24,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.20	-0.06	-0.01	13	35%	-0.13	5	-0.12	8	62%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.2	2.0	29.8	14.5	24.4	2.5	39.3	2.5	21.7	158.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	2.0	17.4	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +27.6%

NOH +8.3%

CHI -25.2%

NOH +28.1%

NOH +11.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NOH	NBA	CHI	NOH	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.7	100.0	105.3	100.5
season	15.2	16.0		94.6	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		99.4	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	14.7	14.9	18.2	17.4	18.1	16.4
NOH	18.0	15.1	15.4	19.5	14.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	33	34	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.13	-3	0	-3	16.6	16.3	0.23	18.1	16.0	2.11
Tyson Chandler	50	48	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.20	8	-11	19	15.4	17.6	-2.19	16.9	16.5	0.39
Kirk Hinrich	51	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-1	-1	16.7	16.2	0.51	16.8	16.6	0.17
Rick Brunson	22	20	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-5	7	17.5	16.1	1.45	17.6	16.5	1.13
Linton Johnson	58	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-2	1	16.5	16.3	0.28	15.9	17.8	-1.94
Jamal Crawford	87	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-1	-1	16.6	14.8	1.81	16.7	16.4	0.36
Ronald Dupree	40	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.33	-3	0	-3	14.8	17.6	-2.76	16.0	17.2	-1.16
Antonio Davis	77	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	2	-7	16.5	16.1	0.34	16.9	15.9	1.09
Eddy Curry	67	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.37	-9	6	-15	17.1	14.8	2.30	16.3	17.7	-1.39

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	81	82	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.49	8	-5	13	16.4	18.3	-1.85	17.0	13.3	3.73
Jamal Mashburn	80	84	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.42	10	-7	17	16.5	17.5	-0.98	16.9	13.2	3.69
David Wesley	68	71	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.31	5	-2	7	16.9	16.2	0.73	16.9	15.2	1.63
Jamaal Magloire	81	86	0.35	0.14	0.21	0.33	1	2	-1	17.0	14.9	2.08	16.3	17.4	-1.06
Baron Davis	69	69	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	-2	7	17.0	15.9	1.08	16.2	16.9	-0.71
Darrell Armstrong	42	42	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	6	-9	16.1	17.2	-1.05	16.0	16.7	-0.75
Stacey Augmon	26	25	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.23	-8	11	-19	16.8	16.7	0.14	14.8	17.0	-2.19
Robert Traylor	27	26	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	6	-9	17.2	16.5	0.67	15.0	16.9	-1.94
Steven Smith	1	0	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.05	0	3	-3	1.0	16.9	-15.87	0.0	16.4	-16.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.31,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.69,0.76,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.55,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.7,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 87, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.84,0.78,0.62,0.63,0.76,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.68,0.73,1	91.0%
MIA 89, LAC 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.84,1	90.2%
HOU 99, NOH 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.37,0.85,0.99,1	89.2%