NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	81		Excitement	8.4 [168]		MVP	Lorenzen Wright (MEM): +13.0%
San Antonio Spurs	80		Comeback	25.1 [25]		LVP	Malik Rose (SAS): -30.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lorenzen Wright	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13	-0.02	0.12	-0.03	13	43%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0,0	0.03	-0.05	-0.02	9	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.06
Stromile Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	45%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	10	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	59%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	0%	-0.07
Pau Gasol	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	8	52%	-0.01	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Bonzi Wells	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	9	40%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.13	-0.02	11	23%	-0.12	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.25	-0.06	-0.18	0.00	8	41%	-0.23	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	13	66%	0.09	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.04	0.01	12	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.04
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.15,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.15	-0.02	11	54%	-0.06	4	-0.14	6	83%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.19	-0.08	-0.01	9	14%	-0.20	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.3	-0.30	-0.11	-0.23	-0.04	8	42%	-0.13	4	-0.17	3	67%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.3	29.4	16.7	28.3	2.6	37.2	140.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -2.5%

MEM +3.4%

MEM +22.8%

MEM +32.0%

SAS -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	16.8	15.4	15.7	90.0	89.9	100.5
season	15.3	15.9		102.3	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.7		92.7	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.8	19.1	15.5	17.0	16.8
SAS	13.6	15.1	15.9	17.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	44	44	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.53	13	-12	25	16.8	16.8	0.06	16.3	14.5	1.76
Bo Outlaw	48	46	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.50	12	-11	23	15.6	18.1	-2.54	15.9	14.9	1.01
Earl Watson	42	42	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-10	21	16.2	17.3	-1.17	16.2	14.7	1.49
James Posey	70	68	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.53	-2	3	-5	17.6	14.1	3.46	15.1	16.1	-1.00
Lorenzen Wright	69	66	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.52	-3	4	-7	17.3	15.2	2.08	15.3	15.7	-0.36
Stromile Swift	33	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	-1	3	14.4	18.2	-3.83	16.1	15.0	1.10
Jason Williams	48	47	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.01	-10	11	-21	17.3	16.2	1.17	14.7	16.2	-1.49
Bonzi Wells	54	55	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.10	-7	8	-15	16.6	17.0	-0.40	14.7	16.6	-1.90
Pau Gasol	42	43	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	-0.03	-11	12	-23	18.1	15.6	2.54	14.9	15.9	-1.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	26	27	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	2	-5	14.7	15.7	-0.92	14.9	17.6	-2.71
Jason Hart	7	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	1	-3	17.4	15.2	2.22	21.6	16.4	5.19
Devin Brown	1	1	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-1	1	3.0	15.5	-12.52	22.0	16.7	5.27
Charlie Ward	24	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.10	-8	7	-15	15.7	15.3	0.39	15.0	17.4	-2.38
Robert Horry	43	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.19	2	-3	5	15.0	15.8	-0.83	17.8	16.0	1.77
Hedo Turkoglu	66	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-4	7	15.6	14.7	0.93	15.9	19.1	-3.17
Malik Rose	46	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	2	-5	16.3	14.4	1.95	15.9	17.9	-2.00
Tony Parker	58	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.60	9	-10	19	15.0	16.1	-1.05	16.9	16.5	0.42
Manu Ginobili	56	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.34	-2	1	-3	15.7	14.8	0.85	16.2	17.8	-1.59
Bruce Bowen	56	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	2	-5	14.8	16.4	-1.61	18.4	14.1	4.31
Rasho Nesterovic	62	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.56	2	-3	5	15.5	15.2	0.23	17.6	14.9	2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.96,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.65,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 83, BOS 81	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.72,0.53,0.21,0.31,0.42,0	91.6%
LAC 82, DEN 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.78,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.45,0.36,0.23,0.58,0	90.5%
PHX 87, MIN 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.71,0.6,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.42,0	90.0%