NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	8.8 [118]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (MIL): +19.7%
Boston Celtics	104		Comeback	3.2 [147]		LVP	Jiri Welsch (BOS): -29.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.06	0.00	9	90%	0.26	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.01	13	68%	0.18	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.08
Daniel Santiago	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	1	83%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.01,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	18	55%	0.02	1	-0.04	11	91%	0.06
Brian Skinner	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	7	44%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	10	38%	-0.07	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-0.01	10	20%	-0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	5	73%	0.08	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	12	69%	0.16	3	-0.12	5	80%	0.04
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	7	36%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.08	-0.01	12	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.08	0.02	11	72%	0.13	4	-0.20	7	71%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	12	47%	-0.14	0	0.00	12	42%	-0.09
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.16	-0.01	10	37%	-0.17	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.04
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.11	-0.19	0.00	9	35%	-0.17	3	-0.13	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.6	32.2	15.7	28.0	2.4	35.3	140.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +18.6%

MIL +4.2%

BOS -13.8%

MIL +21.3%

MIL +19.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	14.0	15.7	109.3	105.1	100.5
season	15.3	14.4		103.6	99.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		102.1	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	13.8	16.5	15.7	15.4
BOS	12.5	13.9	14.8	14.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	84	85	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-11	24	15.6	14.1	1.55	14.6	10.1	4.47
Keith Van Horn	62	64	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.37	2	0	2	14.8	16.5	-1.62	13.6	14.7	-1.14
Toni Kukoc	55	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.15	8	-6	14	15.2	15.8	-0.60	14.9	12.7	2.23
Daniel Santiago	26	27	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	-4	10	16.0	15.2	0.79	16.1	13.2	2.98
Damon Jones	54	54	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.35	-2	4	-6	15.5	15.3	0.22	12.8	15.4	-2.60
Michael Redd	78	80	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.56	-14	16	-30	15.8	13.9	1.83	13.3	16.8	-3.54
Erick Strickland	47	49	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	0	2	15.2	15.7	-0.49	14.5	13.5	1.01
Dan Gadzuric	25	25	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.06	0	2	-2	14.4	15.8	-1.43	12.5	14.5	-2.01
Brian Skinner	43	44	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	5	-8	15.5	15.4	0.16	14.0	14.0	0.04
Joe Smith	11	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	4	-6	17.2	15.2	1.98	13.0	14.1	-1.10

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	61	62	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.13	12	-14	26	13.5	14.7	-1.19	15.4	15.5	-0.14
Walter McCarty	29	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-3	4	14.5	13.8	0.76	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Chucky Atkins	90	88	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.52	10	-12	22	13.6	17.9	-4.30	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Mark Blount	70	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.47	8	-10	18	13.4	15.3	-1.88	15.4	15.4	0.06
Chris Mihm	29	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	8	-18	15.3	13.4	1.88	15.4	15.4	-0.06
Marcus Banks	9	9	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	10	-22	17.9	13.6	4.30	15.4	15.4	0.02
Brandon Hunter	70	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	1	-4	13.8	14.5	-0.76	15.5	15.3	0.16
Ricky Davis	57	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.38	-2	0	-2	13.9	14.1	-0.20	15.2	15.8	-0.62
Jiri Welsch	80	76	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.37	-14	12	-26	14.4	12.3	2.12	15.7	14.6	1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 109, VAN 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.01,0	90.9%
GSW 104, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.33,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.29,0.45,0.27,0	90.6%
DEN 107, MIN 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.42,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.72,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.21,0.54,0.4,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.15,0	90.6%