NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	10.7 [33]		MVP	James Posey (MEM): +24.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	109		Comeback	8.6 [161]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -51.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.00	7	59%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Rodney White	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.06	-0.01	7	53%	0.06	4	-0.08	5	0%	-0.10
Voshon Lenard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	0.03	-0.09	-0.00	18	52%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.37	-0.08	-0.29	-0.00	13	39%	-0.34	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.51	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.51	-0.18	-0.35	-0.01	25	43%	-0.35	5	-0.17	11	73%	0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.22,0.25	0.25	0.09	0.16	0.01	9	74%	0.25	0	0.00	9	89%	0.09
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.24	0.24	0.02	0.22	0.01	13	66%	0.31	3	-0.07	12	92%	0.04
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	7	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.09	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	10	45%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27,-0.43,-0.43	-0.43	-0.12	-0.31	0.00	20	40%	-0.33	3	-0.10	3	33%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.6	32.3	16.3	29.6	2.5	40.2	148.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +74.2%

MEM +21.3%

DEN -30.4%

DEN -14.6%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	15.7	111.6	114.7	100.5
season	14.9	15.3		101.6	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		100.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	17.0	12.6	17.5	15.6
MEM	14.2	15.0	15.1	14.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	82	82	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.08	2	-5	7	15.5	16.6	-1.14	14.8	14.0	0.79
Jon Barry	30	32	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.12	9	-12	21	14.4	16.2	-1.75	14.6	14.7	-0.14
Nene	71	72	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.40	10	-13	23	15.0	17.5	-2.50	15.4	12.6	2.80
Michael Doleac	16	14	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	2	-7	16.5	15.5	1.04	13.9	14.8	-0.97
Rodney White	20	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	4	-11	18.2	14.9	3.25	15.0	14.6	0.38
Chris Andersen	14	15	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	6	-15	18.4	15.2	3.20	12.4	15.1	-2.71
Earl Boykins	41	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-3	3	16.6	14.9	1.68	14.3	15.0	-0.69
Carmelo Anthony	67	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.51	0	-3	3	15.5	16.0	-0.57	14.9	14.0	0.93
Andre Miller	68	68	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.49	-3	0	-3	14.7	17.9	-3.15	14.6	14.8	-0.18
Voshon Lenard	66	64	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.33	-12	9	-21	16.0	14.8	1.16	14.5	15.1	-0.56

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	51	51	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.49	13	-10	23	13.5	16.1	-2.58	15.8	15.4	0.37
Pau Gasol	64	63	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-5	13	14.8	14.4	0.44	15.7	15.6	0.10
Jason Williams	69	67	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.41	7	-4	11	14.9	14.2	0.68	15.7	15.6	0.09
James Posey	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.53	-3	6	-9	15.0	13.5	1.54	16.1	14.0	2.10
Bonzi Wells	63	62	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	-1	5	14.7	14.6	0.18	14.6	17.5	-2.84
Lorenzen Wright	52	51	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.15	-2	5	-7	15.0	14.3	0.70	16.3	14.8	1.52
Dahntay Jones	10	12	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	7	-11	16.6	14.5	2.14	17.4	15.4	2.04
Earl Watson	26	28	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	7	-11	14.2	14.9	-0.68	15.6	15.7	-0.09
Bo Outlaw	27	28	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	8	-13	14.5	14.8	-0.28	15.5	15.7	-0.14
Stromile Swift	40	41	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.24	1	2	-1	14.5	14.8	-0.36	14.6	16.4	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.37,0.22,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 89, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.53,0.65,0.62,0.39,0.37,0.23,0.27,1	91.4%
POR 87, NJN 93	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.71,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.67,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,1	91.3%
CHI 98, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.8,0.74,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.42,1	90.7%