NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	8.3 [192]		MVP	Chris Andersen (DEN): +10.4%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	3.0 [687]		LVP	Desmond Penigar (ORL): -14.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	10	60%	0.00	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Rodney White	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08	0.04	-0.09	0.03	19	70%	0.17	6	-0.25	12	83%	0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.16	-0.05	-0.09	11	21%	-0.12	0	0.00	7	57%	0.03
Andre Miller	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	15	42%	-0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	14	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	62%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.16,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	13	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	0%	-0.24
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	9	55%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	10	45%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	45%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	18	55%	0.02	4	-0.13	8	50%	-0.08
Desmond Penigar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	8	25%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.8	27.0	0.1	32.9	2.5	38.4	129.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +23.0%

DEN -29.7%

ORL +52.2%

ORL +5.7%

DEN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.3	15.7	103.2	107.4	100.5
season	14.9	15.7		101.6	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.4		108.2	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	16.4	14.0	14.6	15.0
ORL	13.9	14.2	17.3	16.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	5	5	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	0	-4	18.2	14.8	3.38	12.8	15.5	-2.66
Andre Miller	68	68	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.28	7	-11	18	14.6	16.0	-1.40	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Voshon Lenard	70	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.38	7	-11	18	14.0	17.7	-3.64	15.1	15.9	-0.77
Rodney White	12	10	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	3	-10	19.2	14.4	4.86	13.5	15.5	-2.03
Chris Andersen	40	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	4	-12	16.2	14.1	2.07	14.7	15.8	-1.10
Carmelo Anthony	83	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.40	3	-7	10	14.4	19.2	-4.86	15.5	13.5	2.03
Nene	61	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-7	10	15.5	14.1	1.42	16.4	13.5	2.94
Marcus Camby	81	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.41	2	-6	8	14.2	19.6	-5.36	15.4	14.4	1.03
Jon Barry	19	19	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	7	-18	17.3	14.4	2.89	15.3	15.3	-0.07
Earl Boykins	36	36	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	8	-20	15.5	14.7	0.85	15.1	15.4	-0.33

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	56	56	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.30	17	-13	30	14.5	16.4	-1.90	15.5	14.2	1.30
Drew Gooden	49	50	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-7	18	16.3	14.2	2.09	15.8	14.1	1.73
Keith Bogans	55	55	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	5	-6	16.2	14.1	2.14	14.3	15.9	-1.64
Desmond Penigar	33	34	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-7	18	16.3	14.8	1.56	17.3	13.7	3.62
DeShawn Stevenson	60	60	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	1	2	15.1	15.7	-0.68	14.0	16.6	-2.58
Zaza Pachulia	37	37	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	-3	10	16.0	14.9	1.12	15.9	14.4	1.51
Juwan Howard	89	88	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	6	-8	15.1	18.8	-3.75	14.6	20.1	-5.55
Tracy McGrady	42	41	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	9	-14	13.7	16.6	-2.91	15.4	14.7	0.69
Steven Hunter	12	12	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.12	-9	13	-22	14.0	15.5	-1.51	14.3	15.1	-0.76
Tyronn Lue	42	42	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.09	-12	16	-28	15.5	15.2	0.24	13.5	16.2	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.68,0.84,0.86,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 98, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.76,0.85,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.92,1	92.3%
NYK 71, CHA 76	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.95,1	92.2%
BOS 91, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.27,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.43,0.67,0.83,0.76,0.64,0.47,0.61,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.69,1	92.2%