NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	98		Excitement	7.3 [356]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +27.9%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	2.3 [813]		LVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): -26.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.00	13	69%	0.18	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
John Stockton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	10	62%	0.12	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Karl Malone	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	17	68%	0.15	3	-0.09	10	70%	0.02
Scott Padgett	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	10	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	48%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Bryon Russell	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27	-0.15	-0.12	-0.00	6	14%	-0.14	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.15	0.00	17	69%	0.28	0	0.00	17	100%	0.13
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.09	-0.02	7	75%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	16	56%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.07	-0.01	9	53%	0.15	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	11	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.03
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	29.2	18.6	26.4	2.8	34.3	140.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +18.8%

SAS +12.8%

UTA -5.8%

SAS +17.2%

SAS +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.6	16.3	15.6	114.0	114.6	102.3
season	16.1	15.8		102.9	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.1		98.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.5	15.1	17.3	16.5	16.6
SAS	16.0	16.8	14.8	17.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	57	59	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.01	1	-5	6	16.9	16.0	0.86	15.8	17.4	-1.59
Scott Padgett	16	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-4	4	14.5	17.1	-2.59	15.1	16.6	-1.53
John Amaechi	11	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-3	2	17.1	16.5	0.56	15.1	16.5	-1.40
Jarron Collins	50	53	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-8	12	16.0	17.4	-1.35	18.1	13.7	4.40
Andrei Kirilenko	69	72	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	-0.34	4	-8	12	16.1	18.6	-2.55	17.0	13.2	3.81
Greg Ostertag	16	16	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	5	-14	19.1	16.0	3.02	12.4	17.2	-4.80
John Starks	30	31	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	5	-14	17.1	16.4	0.71	15.0	17.0	-1.97
Karl Malone	79	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-2	0	16.8	14.1	2.68	16.3	16.0	0.34
Bryon Russell	48	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.37	-3	-1	-2	17.0	16.1	0.85	16.3	16.3	-0.03
John Stockton	54	55	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	1	-6	16.4	17.0	-0.68	16.7	15.7	0.94

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	82	78	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.36	8	-4	12	16.5	13.6	2.98	16.9	13.6	3.29
Charles Smith	76	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	-1	6	15.8	19.2	-3.41	17.0	14.2	2.74
Stephen Jackson	32	31	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-7	18	15.2	16.9	-1.66	17.5	16.1	1.32
David Robinson	56	53	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	4	-4	17.0	15.2	1.80	16.3	17.1	-0.79
Terry Porter	28	28	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	0	4	15.2	16.8	-1.55	16.7	16.6	0.11
Steven Smith	59	56	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.32	-4	8	-12	17.7	13.7	3.99	16.1	17.6	-1.48
Antonio Daniels	72	69	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.30	-4	8	-12	16.6	15.0	1.63	16.2	18.2	-2.03
Malik Rose	40	41	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	4	-4	14.9	17.5	-2.57	16.4	16.8	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.76,0.85,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 86, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.95,0.99,1	93.7%
ATL 90, DEN 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.71,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.8,0.9,0.97,1,1	93.0%
DAL 101, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.92,1	92.6%