NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	90		Excitement	6.4 [536]		MVP	Raymond Felton (DEN): +16.3%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	2.7 [700]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -11.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.00	15	66%	0.19	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	12	38%	0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh Powell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	23	46%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	14	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Damien Wilkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	6	39%	-0.04	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.02	12	62%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.07	0.03	10	73%	0.19	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	11	48%	0.09	1	-0.03	7	29%	-0.09
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	14	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	13	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	10	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.5	29.3	15.8	22.5	1.8	31.6	124.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.9%

DEN +2.3%

ATL -10.2%

DEN +9.8%

DEN +9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.7	13.5	15.5	96.8	109.9	105.7
season	16.5	14.3		104.0	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.0	20.7	19.5	14.4	17.7
DEN	14.9	10.7	15.6	13.3	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	25	24	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.10	6	-16	22	18.8	17.4	1.45	13.7	13.4	0.26
Jeff Teague	67	63	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-16	22	18.5	15.8	2.68	13.3	14.0	-0.65
Josh Powell	10	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-5	0	16.5	17.9	-1.39	14.4	13.4	0.96
Zaza Pachulia	39	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	0	-10	18.9	16.9	2.03	14.3	12.9	1.49
Marvin Williams	73	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	17.4	18.9	-1.54	13.3	14.2	-0.94
Joe Johnson	79	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-1	-8	17.7	18.2	-0.56	13.4	13.9	-0.49
Al Horford	80	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-6	2	17.6	18.5	-0.93	13.6	12.9	0.78
Damien Wilkins	32	32	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.09	-10	0	-10	16.3	18.5	-2.23	14.3	13.1	1.18
Jamal Crawford	60	60	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.16	-18	8	-26	17.4	18.4	-1.06	12.7	15.1	-2.35

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	60	60	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.16	18	-8	26	12.7	15.1	-2.35	17.4	18.4	-1.06
J.R. Smith	51	51	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-3	16	13.7	13.3	0.34	15.9	20.0	-4.12
Nene	66	69	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.16	6	4	2	12.7	15.6	-2.87	18.1	16.7	1.34
Chris Andersen	32	31	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	3	4	14.6	12.9	1.66	17.4	17.9	-0.48
Arron Afflalo	69	70	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	7	-4	13.9	12.3	1.64	16.8	20.7	-3.92
Kenyon Martin	60	64	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.13	4	6	-2	13.8	13.0	0.83	17.7	17.7	0.03
Wilson Chandler	59	61	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	9	-8	13.9	12.8	1.09	19.2	14.9	4.28
Al Harrington	15	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	10	-10	14.7	13.3	1.38	17.3	17.8	-0.54
Ty Lawson	43	45	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	12	-14	12.9	14.1	-1.16	19.7	15.9	3.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.71,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.8,0.9,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 75, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	93.5%
CLE 71, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	93.3%
SAS 79, PHX 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.93,1,1,1	93.1%