NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	7.4 [340]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +17.2%
Houston Rockets	82		Comeback	1.4 [404]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -29.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	9	72%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.11	-0.00	0.11	0.01	9	65%	0.18	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Charlie Ward	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	11	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.02	-0.01	23	49%	0.05	4	-0.12	11	73%	-0.00
Tony Parker	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.08	0.03	16	69%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	12	50%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	1	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.07
Kelvin Cato	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	12	38%	-0.14	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.11,-0.2,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.18	-0.01	18	43%	-0.18	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.7	27.2	19.6	32.0	3.5	34.8	147.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.9%

SAS +4.5%

HOU -10.3%

SAS +9.5%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	17.1	17.0	15.7	100.0	97.6	100.5
season	15.9	16.5		100.1	98.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		97.1	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.3	17.4	15.8	18.8	17.1
HOU	18.9	16.1	17.7	15.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	77	77	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-9	21	16.8	20.0	-3.22	17.6	10.6	7.01
Robert Horry	44	45	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-5	13	18.3	15.8	2.47	16.9	17.1	-0.19
Bruce Bowen	66	64	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	-3	9	17.2	16.6	0.65	16.9	17.4	-0.59
Tony Parker	67	66	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.43	-2	5	-7	17.2	16.7	0.53	17.2	16.2	0.99
Manu Ginobili	53	54	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	0	3	17.5	16.5	0.98	17.2	16.6	0.57
Charlie Ward	18	18	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	-2	7	16.7	17.2	-0.53	16.2	17.2	-0.99
Hedo Turkoglu	51	50	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.19	-3	6	-9	16.5	17.9	-1.43	17.0	17.1	-0.10
Rasho Nesterovic	49	46	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.17	-14	17	-31	16.5	17.9	-1.40	16.1	18.1	-1.97

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	24	23	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.19	12	-15	27	15.7	17.5	-1.87	19.4	16.2	3.23
Adrian Griffin	0	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-2	1	0.0	17.0	-17.00	12.0	17.1	-5.14
Mark Jackson	13	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-2	1	16.5	17.1	-0.55	17.1	17.1	-0.01
Scott Padgett	1	0	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-3	3	15.0	17.0	-2.02	0.0	17.1	-17.08
Kelvin Cato	33	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	3	-9	18.8	15.9	2.89	15.5	18.2	-2.76
Maurice Taylor	43	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	5	-13	16.1	18.0	-1.91	17.1	17.0	0.11
Cuttino Mobley	76	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.48	3	-6	9	16.7	19.4	-2.62	17.4	13.6	3.83
Yao Ming	67	67	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	0	-3	17.2	16.1	1.18	17.2	16.8	0.39
Steve Francis	84	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	17.0	0.0	17.00	17.1	0.0	17.08
Jim Jackson	79	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	5	-13	17.3	12.0	5.32	16.8	21.2	-4.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.19,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 106, CHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.29,0.43,0.15,0	92.3%
NOK 100, UTA 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.16,0.29,0.4,0.19,0.37,0.34,0.16,0	91.7%
CLE 82, VAN 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.33,0.27,0	91.6%