NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	97		Excitement	3.7 [1069]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +11.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	107		Comeback	1.0 [1232]		LVP	T.J. Ford (MIL): -9.4%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stacey Augmon	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	9	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.05	13	62%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	13	46%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	4	44%	-0.02	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	13	54%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	0.05	14	62%	0.04	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	11	78%	0.11	0	0.00	10	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.02	12	65%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	10	68%	0.04	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	12	46%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	9	37%	-0.07	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	25.5	15.7	26.3	2.3	25.5	120.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +7.8%

MIL +10.2%

MIL +13.2%

MIL +20.7%

NOH -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIL	NBA	NOH	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.7	107.8	118.9	100.5
season	16.0	15.3		99.3	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.3	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.6	17.0	16.9	14.0	16.1
MIL	15.4	15.8	16.6	16.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	41	39	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-19	28	14.9	17.0	-2.14	14.9	16.7	-1.87
Robert Traylor	24	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.11	-5	-5	0	15.3	16.3	-1.06	12.5	17.2	-4.68
George Lynch	14	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.23	-9	-1	-8	15.5	16.2	-0.67	9.9	17.0	-7.11
Darrell Armstrong	51	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.28	6	-16	22	16.2	15.9	0.21	15.6	16.3	-0.71
David West	54	55	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.34	8	-18	26	15.5	16.9	-1.37	15.7	16.2	-0.48
Stacey Augmon	54	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	3	-16	15.9	16.2	-0.31	16.0	15.9	0.12
P.J. Brown	39	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.07	-14	4	-18	16.7	15.6	1.15	16.6	15.4	1.20
Jamal Mashburn	63	64	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	-7	4	16.1	16.1	-0.01	17.4	12.4	4.99
Jamaal Magloire	63	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	-1	-8	16.4	15.2	1.21	17.0	13.6	3.43
Baron Davis	47	49	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.05	-20	10	-30	17.3	14.7	2.58	16.9	14.8	2.07

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	72	72	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.31	29	-19	48	15.1	19.4	-4.39	16.5	14.3	2.17
Tim Thomas	52	52	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.13	21	-11	32	16.3	15.4	0.98	17.1	14.6	2.48
Brian Skinner	49	48	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.03	17	-7	24	16.8	14.9	1.85	16.8	15.2	1.60
Joe Smith	44	43	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.01	13	-3	16	16.6	15.3	1.29	16.8	15.4	1.43
T.J. Ford	53	53	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	12	-14	17.8	13.3	4.43	16.0	16.2	-0.16
Damon Jones	50	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	14	-18	15.0	17.1	-2.05	15.3	17.0	-1.68
Toni Kukoc	44	45	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	9	-8	14.9	16.9	-2.05	15.9	16.3	-0.40
Dan Gadzuric	41	42	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.23	-7	17	-24	14.9	16.8	-1.85	15.2	16.8	-1.60
Daniel Santiago	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	14	-18	24.5	15.7	8.76	4.5	16.3	-11.83
Desmond Mason	43	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.39	-14	24	-38	15.7	16.1	-0.41	15.0	17.0	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 90, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
SAC 95, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
BOS 82, ORL 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%