NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	5.9 [619]		MVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): +17.4%
Utah Jazz	97		Comeback	1.5 [830]		LVP	Rafer Alston (MIA): -16.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wallace	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brian Grant	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	13	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Loren Woods	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.04	8	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	12	60%	0.02	4	-0.08	6	100%	0.05
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	50%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Lamar Odom	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	11	45%	-0.03	3	-0.11	9	56%	-0.07
Rafer Alston	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.09	-0.05	0.03	7	50%	-0.09	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.10	0.02	18	62%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	79%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	73%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Paul Grant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Raul Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	5	72%	0.05	5	-0.14	8	62%	-0.02
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	6	14%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	3	64%	0.01	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.5	28.3	15.7	31.2	2.6	34.9	140.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +48.7%

UTA +7.4%

UTA +3.9%

MIA -14.1%

UTA +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	16.4	16.9	15.7	97.7	112.8	100.5
season	16.2	17.2		99.3	99.4
opponent	15.2	15.9		100.8	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	18.6	17.2	15.2	16.4
UTA	18.0	15.7	19.7	14.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	71	69	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-16	20	15.3	21.2	-6.00	17.2	15.9	1.32
John Wallace	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	14.8	16.6	-1.76	15.5	17.1	-1.60
Caron Butler	32	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-13	14	15.9	16.6	-0.66	16.4	17.2	-0.83
Bimbo Coles	12	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-9	6	15.0	16.6	-1.57	16.1	17.1	-1.00
Rasual Butler	28	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-7	2	15.4	16.8	-1.47	17.0	16.9	0.09
Udonis Haslem	41	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-6	0	16.5	16.3	0.20	16.5	17.3	-0.83
Malik Allen	43	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.01	-9	-3	-6	16.3	16.4	-0.06	17.6	16.3	1.32
Eddie Jones	53	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-11	10	17.5	14.6	2.81	17.1	16.7	0.45
Rafer Alston	75	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-3	-6	16.6	15.0	1.57	17.1	16.1	1.00
Loren Woods	13	14	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	1	-14	21.7	15.4	6.27	15.7	17.2	-1.47
Lamar Odom	56	57	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.05	-19	7	-26	16.5	16.2	0.30	17.1	16.6	0.48

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	76	77	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.12	18	-6	24	16.7	19.0	-2.33	17.2	10.0	7.18
Raja Bell	42	41	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.10	17	-5	22	15.2	18.6	-3.42	17.1	15.7	1.45
Sasha Pavlovic	46	45	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.13	12	0	12	16.0	18.0	-1.98	16.1	16.7	-0.60
Raul Lopez	57	57	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	1	10	16.0	18.8	-2.85	15.8	17.5	-1.75
Jarron Collins	46	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	4	4	16.5	17.4	-0.90	14.7	18.2	-3.43
Greg Ostertag	39	40	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.02	6	6	0	17.5	16.5	0.95	18.5	14.5	4.06
Carlos Arroyo	29	30	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.07	1	11	-10	18.8	16.0	2.85	17.5	15.8	1.75
Paul Grant	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	14	-16	16.0	17.0	-0.95	3.0	16.5	-13.51
DeShawn Stevenson	44	46	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	17	-22	18.6	15.2	3.42	15.7	17.1	-1.45
Michael Ruffin	50	52	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	18	-24	18.2	15.2	3.01	15.4	17.8	-2.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.75,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.8%
ORL 73, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.5,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.8%
HOU 95, LAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%