NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	78		Excitement	6.1 [573]		MVP	Elden Campbell (DET): +10.6%
Boston Celtics	68		Comeback	1.6 [358]		LVP	Jiri Welsch (BOS): -22.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	8	76%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	10	52%	0.06	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	13	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	22	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	11	35%	-0.08	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Mehmet Okur	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.06	-0.03	6	33%	0.01	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	25	50%	0.08	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Vin Baker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	53%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.01	-0.02	12	21%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.07	-0.02	14	32%	-0.07	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.16	-0.08	-0.02	8	22%	-0.10	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	25.1	15.4	23.4	2.4	25.6	119.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +16.9%

BOS -0.7%

DET +21.5%

DET +8.2%

DET +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	17.0	14.8	15.7	86.7	74.7	100.5
season	16.2	14.4		99.2	99.5
opponent	15.9	16.0		102.1	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.0	16.6	16.8	17.5	17.0
BOS	13.5	16.9	15.2	13.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mehmet Okur	47	49	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-4	18	16.0	18.0	-2.03	15.0	14.6	0.42
Richard Hamilton	80	81	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-1	12	17.0	17.0	-0.01	14.8	15.6	-0.85
Tayshaun Prince	60	60	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	0	10	17.2	16.6	0.58	14.3	15.9	-1.55
Ben Wallace	78	78	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	6	-2	17.1	16.6	0.47	14.4	17.3	-2.87
Chauncey Billups	71	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	7	-4	17.5	15.0	2.52	14.4	16.4	-1.99
Elden Campbell	29	31	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.03	8	2	6	16.9	17.0	-0.09	15.3	14.6	0.67
Bob Sura	32	32	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	4	2	16.1	17.5	-1.44	16.0	14.2	1.83
Chucky Atkins	27	29	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	10	-10	16.3	17.3	-1.04	16.0	14.3	1.64
Darvin Ham	26	24	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	16	-22	18.6	16.3	2.29	15.2	14.7	0.49

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vin Baker	15	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-5	0	16.1	14.6	1.54	15.1	17.3	-2.19
Marcus Banks	36	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	-5	0	15.1	14.7	0.39	17.3	16.8	0.49
Ricky Davis	51	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-6	2	14.6	15.1	-0.54	17.4	16.5	0.83
Walter McCarty	68	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-9	8	15.0	14.4	0.61	17.4	15.7	1.80
Chris Mihm	34	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-3	-4	13.9	15.4	-1.49	16.7	17.1	-0.37
Mike James	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-5	0	14.7	15.1	-0.39	16.8	17.3	-0.49
Jiri Welsch	52	52	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-3	-4	15.9	13.5	2.38	16.6	17.5	-0.93
Mark Blount	65	67	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	-3	-4	14.9	14.8	0.11	17.0	16.9	0.16
Paul Pierce	79	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.21	-9	-1	-8	14.3	18.2	-3.92	17.0	16.8	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 108, SAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.17,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.02,0,0	93.7%
POR 85, DET 74	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.15,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.13,0.04,0,0,0,0	93.1%
GSW 119, SAC 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.36,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%