NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	93		Excitement	7.0 [397]		MVP	Darvin Ham (DET): +19.9%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	1.5 [782]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (GSW): -13.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.10	-0.01	7	79%	0.21	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.09
Jason Richardson	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	21	52%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Clifford Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	56%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.06	-0.04	9	52%	-0.05	1	-0.02	9	44%	-0.15
Speedy Claxton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.03,-0.13	-0.14	0.01	-0.00	18	45%	0.03	6	-0.16	4	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.19	0.00	4	56%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.04
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	3	133%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.06	-0.03	8	62%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	15	55%	0.09	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.08	-0.04	17	59%	0.15	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	10	54%	-0.05	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	16	50%	0.06	6	-0.17	4	100%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	0.7	28.6	16.5	28.2	1.8	37.2	133.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +33.6%

DET +24.3%

GSW -1.7%

GSW -2.2%

GSW -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DET	NBA	GSW	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	15.8	15.7	101.1	108.8	100.5
season	16.1	16.2		100.8	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.3		92.6	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.2	15.4	14.8	16.4	15.7
DET	14.5	16.6	14.6	17.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cardinal	35	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.40	10	-16	26	16.5	15.2	1.30	16.1	15.6	0.43
Troy Murphy	31	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	1	-8	16.7	15.1	1.59	15.3	16.1	-0.76
Erick Dampier	78	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-6	6	16.0	13.9	2.03	16.1	14.2	1.94
Speedy Claxton	35	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.14	-6	0	-6	16.3	15.2	1.11	15.8	15.8	-0.05
Jason Richardson	78	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	14.9	19.8	-4.88	16.1	14.7	1.39
Mike Dunleavy	75	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-3	0	15.4	16.7	-1.29	16.1	14.6	1.53
Nick Van Exel	81	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-1	-4	14.9	21.1	-6.18	16.0	14.7	1.33
Clifford Robinson	64	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.10	-13	7	-20	15.5	16.0	-0.45	15.1	17.6	-2.57

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	15	17	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.35	14	-8	22	12.9	16.4	-3.54	15.6	15.7	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	82	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-2	10	15.6	18.2	-2.66	15.2	19.6	-4.43
Chauncey Billups	69	71	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	-1	8	16.3	14.2	2.17	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Ben Wallace	79	79	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	3	0	15.7	16.8	-1.16	15.4	17.0	-1.57
Tayshaun Prince	83	83	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.33	2	4	-2	15.9	15.1	0.77	15.3	18.7	-3.34
Mehmet Okur	74	75	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.12	9	-3	12	16.2	14.4	1.81	16.3	12.8	3.47
Chucky Atkins	31	31	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	9	-12	15.4	16.1	-0.71	17.2	14.9	2.32
Elden Campbell	22	22	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	16	-26	17.0	15.4	1.55	15.5	15.7	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.44,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 83, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.77,0.41,1	91.2%
ATL 98, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.81,0.71,0.55,0.73,1	90.6%
OKC 88, DET 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.86,0.84,1	90.6%