NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	101		Excitement	3.9 [1026]		MVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): +12.0%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.1 [1143]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -19.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	15	58%	0.05	0	0.00	8	100%	0.03
Tyronn Lue	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.03	0.05	20	63%	0.06	3	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	10	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.17	-0.02	0.00	18	46%	-0.09	6	-0.11	12	67%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.04	12	68%	0.14	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.15	0.03	0.06	21	65%	0.12	0	0.00	9	100%	0.05
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	12	69%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	13	54%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	16	34%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	6	42%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.6	30.4	15.4	25.2	1.8	29.3	130.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.6%

MIA +1.3%

MIA +5.9%

MIA +10.0%

MIA +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	17.4	15.7	111.0	121.7	100.5
season	15.7	16.2		100.9	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.8	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.1	14.7	13.0	14.5	14.1
MIA	16.5	16.6	19.1	17.5	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	4	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-10	9	19.0	13.9	5.14	13.7	17.5	-3.78
Keith Bogans	41	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-12	13	14.0	14.2	-0.25	18.5	16.4	2.10
Rod Strickland	25	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.09	-11	0	-11	14.9	13.8	1.09	17.2	17.4	-0.23
Tyronn Lue	66	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-11	11	13.8	14.9	-1.09	17.4	17.2	0.23
Juwan Howard	76	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-10	9	13.9	15.1	-1.17	17.7	15.5	2.19
Gordan Giricek	53	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	0	-11	14.3	13.8	0.47	16.1	19.0	-2.97
Andrew DeClercq	31	34	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	1	-13	13.0	14.6	-1.60	17.8	17.1	0.63
Drew Gooden	71	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	14.5	12.7	1.78	17.0	18.5	-1.54
Tracy McGrady	88	89	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	1	-13	14.0	15.7	-1.63	17.6	11.0	6.58

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	76	74	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-2	15	17.2	17.9	-0.69	14.1	13.9	0.25
Lamar Odom	46	47	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.01	15	-4	19	17.9	16.9	1.00	14.4	13.7	0.74
Caron Butler	61	59	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.03	15	-4	19	17.9	16.4	1.43	14.5	13.3	1.24
Rafer Alston	78	76	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	3	5	17.8	15.1	2.63	14.0	14.6	-0.61
Brian Grant	47	46	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	1	9	18.0	16.7	1.33	14.0	14.1	-0.09
Rasual Butler	40	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	10	-9	16.9	17.7	-0.88	13.7	14.4	-0.65
Malik Allen	35	36	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	6	-1	15.2	18.7	-3.50	15.0	13.5	1.51
Bimbo Coles	14	15	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	8	-5	15.1	17.8	-2.63	14.6	14.0	0.61
Samaki Walker	34	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.32	-11	22	-33	17.2	17.4	-0.21	12.2	15.2	-2.96
Loren Woods	6	6	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	15	-19	21.3	17.1	4.24	12.8	14.2	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.77,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 102, IND 111	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.94,1,1	95.6%
TOR 95, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.84,1	95.3%
NYK 94, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.86,0.93,1	95.3%