NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	100		Excitement	3.2 [1142]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (NYK): +14.9%
Miami Heat	80		Comeback	1.0 [566]		LVP	Rafer Alston (MIA): -6.8%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.01	-0.01	15	76%	0.22	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.03
Frank Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.02	8	78%	0.12	3	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00
Allan Houston	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	11	56%	0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	7	80%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	6	7%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	8	50%	0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.03	6	57%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	16	49%	0.06	2	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	3	12%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	7	65%	-0.01	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	19	53%	-0.01	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.03	-0.05	13	39%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.4	2.7	26.2	2.5	29.5	115.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +55.3%

MIA -4.9%

MIA -2.1%

MIA -3.3%

NYK +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	17.0	15.7	113.6	89.9	100.5
season	15.5	16.2		98.6	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.8	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	13.1	15.7	14.7	19.0	15.6
MIA	17.5	15.0	18.7	16.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	61	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.24	24	-4	28	14.1	18.8	-4.70	17.0	16.9	0.13
Frank Williams	55	55	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.16	21	-1	22	14.6	17.1	-2.45	16.4	18.0	-1.61
Keith Van Horn	64	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.22	23	-3	26	14.9	17.4	-2.50	17.2	16.2	1.03
Allan Houston	54	57	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.14	19	1	18	15.1	16.2	-1.06	18.5	14.2	4.26
Antonio McDyess	41	43	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.16	15	5	10	14.7	16.3	-1.54	17.3	16.7	0.63
Dikembe Mutombo	29	30	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.14	14	6	8	15.0	15.8	-0.83	19.2	15.8	3.35
Howard Eisley	36	35	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	22	-24	18.7	13.4	5.26	17.4	16.7	0.70
Shandon Anderson	48	48	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.12	7	13	-6	15.3	15.8	-0.54	15.6	18.6	-2.98
Othella Harrington	27	26	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	24	-28	18.8	14.1	4.70	16.9	17.0	-0.13
Michael Doleac	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	26	-32	19.1	15.2	3.92	12.1	17.4	-5.25
Michael Sweetney	10	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	26	-32	20.5	14.9	5.58	11.6	17.5	-5.88
Charlie Ward	7	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.10	-5	25	-30	13.9	15.7	-1.85	13.6	17.3	-3.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	21	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-22	24	15.3	17.5	-2.21	18.5	14.5	3.96
Udonis Haslem	13	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-17	14	17.4	16.9	0.48	16.7	15.4	1.38
Bimbo Coles	22	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	-14	8	18.8	16.4	2.45	17.7	14.9	2.83
Rasual Butler	34	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-16	12	15.2	18.1	-2.91	15.8	15.4	0.47
Samaki Walker	31	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	-12	4	15.3	17.9	-2.54	16.0	15.3	0.75
Caron Butler	59	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	-13	6	17.2	16.6	0.52	16.0	14.7	1.34
Brian Grant	58	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	-8	-4	17.9	15.3	2.54	15.3	16.0	-0.75
Rafer Alston	67	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.02	-14	-6	-8	16.4	18.8	-2.45	14.9	17.7	-2.83
Lamar Odom	77	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.21	-22	2	-24	17.5	13.4	4.12	14.8	19.6	-4.77
Eddie Jones	63	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.31	-26	6	-32	17.6	15.5	2.09	14.5	17.7	-3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.23,0.25,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0,0	95.2%
CHA 129, ATL 120	0.5,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.2%
PHI 120, BKN 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%