NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	6.3 [541]		MVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): +12.6%
Toronto Raptors	93		Comeback	1.5 [416]		LVP	Jalen Rose (TOR): -14.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.00	7	71%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	10	64%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	27	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Juwan Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	18	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Drew Gooden	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	17	41%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.02	13	69%	0.19	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	64%	0.12	3	-0.13	5	40%	-0.04
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	19	45%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	23%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	0.03	12	65%	0.05	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	0.07	15	44%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	3.4	25.4	16.7	24.0	2.7	29.8	123.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +8.3%

ORL +2.3%

ORL +7.8%

ORL +31.8%

TOR -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	15.4	15.7	109.5	98.9	100.5
season	15.7	16.8		100.9	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		98.4	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	15.7	15.1	13.9	15.0
TOR	15.8	15.6	15.5	14.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	77	78	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.14	16	-5	21	14.9	15.4	-0.44	15.3	16.3	-1.04
Gordan Giricek	77	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-2	15	15.1	14.9	0.11	15.5	15.2	0.30
Rod Strickland	58	60	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-1	13	15.4	14.4	1.07	14.6	16.9	-2.25
Tracy McGrady	75	74	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	1	9	15.6	12.8	2.76	15.3	16.1	-0.89
Drew Gooden	76	75	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	2	7	15.4	13.6	1.75	15.5	15.4	0.10
Keith Bogans	27	28	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	9	-7	14.0	15.4	-1.39	15.6	15.4	0.28
Tyronn Lue	37	34	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	12	-13	14.4	15.4	-1.07	16.9	14.6	2.25
Zaza Pachulia	10	9	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	9	-7	16.2	14.9	1.31	17.0	15.3	1.72
Shammond Williams	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	14	-17	13.4	15.2	-1.89	15.8	15.4	0.42
Andrew DeClercq	27	26	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	16	-21	13.9	15.5	-1.65	15.4	15.5	-0.09

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	11	12	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.13	5	-16	21	16.2	15.3	0.83	15.9	14.9	1.01
Michael Curry	15	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-9	7	16.5	15.3	1.21	15.3	15.0	0.36
Morris Peterson	32	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-10	9	15.9	15.2	0.65	16.1	14.5	1.67
Lonny Baxter	39	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-7	3	17.2	14.2	2.92	14.7	15.3	-0.61
Chris Bosh	74	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-8	5	15.4	15.7	-0.32	14.5	17.0	-2.47
Alvin Williams	76	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	-1	-9	15.2	16.6	-1.37	15.1	14.9	0.17
Vince Carter	72	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-4	-3	15.5	15.2	0.35	14.4	17.0	-2.58
Donyell Marshall	73	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	1	-13	14.8	17.6	-2.80	15.6	13.0	2.55
Jalen Rose	78	79	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.08	-21	10	-31	14.9	17.9	-2.93	15.1	14.7	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.03,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 101, VAN 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.07,0.13,0.02,0.01,0	94.4%
NYK 100, CHH 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.3,0.28,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.24,0.18,0.05,0.1,0.03,0.04,0	94.2%
NOH 101, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.02,0	94.1%