NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	116		Excitement	3.9 [1025]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIN): +17.9%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	1.0 [562]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -16.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	17	75%	0.19	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	17	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ndudi Ebi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.03	9	70%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.01
Keith McLeod	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	2	67%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Latrell Sprewell	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	14	44%	-0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	-0.02	0.07	11	77%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	64%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	7	31%	-0.02	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	-0.06	16	39%	-0.01	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	8	67%	0.04	6	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.05	0.02	18	37%	-0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	27.4	29.7	30.3	2.4	27.3	141.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +39.1%

MIN +2.8%

MIN +6.7%

MIN +1.1%

MIN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	BOS	NBA	MIN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.9	15.6	15.7	122.1	101.1	100.5
season	15.6	14.4		103.2	99.5
opponent	15.9	16.1		102.1	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	16.5	13.3	15.9	14.9
BOS	14.6	17.0	15.5	15.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	82	80	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.09	23	-2	25	14.9	14.7	0.25	16.0	13.1	2.94
Latrell Sprewell	62	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.14	18	3	15	15.7	13.5	2.18	15.3	16.0	-0.70
Sam Cassell	71	69	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.07	15	6	9	15.4	13.4	2.05	15.4	15.9	-0.47
Fred Hoiberg	58	57	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.08	14	7	7	14.4	15.8	-1.39	16.2	14.7	1.48
Ervin Johnson	52	53	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.04	11	10	1	16.3	13.2	3.06	15.2	16.0	-0.75
Trenton Hassell	54	54	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	17	-13	15.8	13.7	2.06	15.7	15.3	0.39
Keith McLeod	24	25	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	15	-9	13.4	15.4	-2.05	15.9	15.4	0.47
Gary Trent	46	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	21	-21	14.1	15.6	-1.50	15.5	15.6	-0.13
Quincy Lewis	17	17	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.11	6	15	-9	11.2	15.7	-4.54	13.9	15.9	-1.99
Ndudi Ebi	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	17	-13	11.0	15.1	-4.12	13.7	15.7	-1.91
Oliver Miller	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	17	-13	10.0	15.1	-5.12	13.3	15.6	-2.32

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-20	19	14.1	15.8	-1.68	13.8	15.0	-1.23
Marcus Banks	42	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-19	17	15.5	15.7	-0.22	14.8	15.0	-0.17
Walter McCarty	59	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-13	5	16.1	14.7	1.42	15.2	14.5	0.71
Jumaine Jones	40	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	-9	-3	15.0	16.0	-0.91	12.7	16.6	-3.91
Mike James	64	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.17	-15	-6	-9	15.6	15.5	0.11	15.2	14.2	0.98
Vin Baker	60	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	-8	-5	15.2	16.3	-1.08	14.4	15.8	-1.34
Paul Pierce	70	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.08	-15	-6	-9	15.7	15.2	0.44	15.1	14.2	0.96
Jiri Welsch	68	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	-4	-13	15.5	15.8	-0.32	15.6	13.2	2.35
Mark Blount	56	55	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.17	-22	1	-23	16.1	14.8	1.36	15.6	13.9	1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.28,0.22,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
UTA 120, ATL 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
GSW 108, MEM 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.39,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%