NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	70		Excitement	4.3 [941]		MVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): +22.7%
Houston Rockets	90		Comeback	1.8 [857]		LVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): -18.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	15	62%	0.07	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Loren Woods	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
John Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	9	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.17	-0.01	-0.06	12	8%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.09	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Lamar Odom	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.17	-0.01	0.01	15	37%	-0.11	3	-0.07	8	25%	-0.06

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.05	0.00	21	67%	0.23	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	7	93%	0.14	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	56%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Alton Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	3	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.04	7	76%	0.02	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.03	-0.04	14	42%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Torraye Braggs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	4	37%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	2.4	27.7	15.8	26.4	1.7	34.2	138.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +47.4%

HOU +7.7%

MIA -15.0%

HOU +7.2%

HOU +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.1	17.6	15.7	81.4	105.9	100.5
season	16.2	16.5		99.3	98.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		97.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	16.1	16.2	17.6	16.1
HOU	17.3	18.1	16.5	18.4	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Hill	15	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.10	-6	-14	8	18.3	15.7	2.67	16.3	17.8	-1.58
Loren Woods	20	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-14	8	15.3	16.4	-1.08	17.0	17.7	-0.71
Eddie Jones	63	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-17	14	16.2	16.0	0.23	18.1	15.9	2.23
Rafer Alston	21	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.09	-10	-10	0	16.6	16.0	0.59	17.4	17.6	-0.27
Brian Grant	51	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-12	4	15.8	16.6	-0.80	18.1	16.7	1.46
Lamar Odom	69	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.10	-13	-7	-6	16.1	16.2	-0.06	17.5	17.7	-0.15
John Wallace	27	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-12	4	15.3	16.5	-1.21	17.6	17.6	0.04
Udonis Haslem	51	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-10	0	16.1	16.2	-0.17	17.6	17.6	0.01
Dwyane Wade	68	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.11	-15	-5	-10	15.9	16.9	-1.03	17.8	16.7	1.07
Caron Butler	45	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.23	-21	1	-22	16.8	15.4	1.32	16.5	18.7	-2.19

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cuttino Mobley	73	72	0.67	-0.17	0.84	-0.12	27	-7	34	17.3	19.0	-1.67	16.5	14.1	2.46
Yao Ming	56	58	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.14	20	0	20	17.6	17.5	0.12	16.4	15.6	0.77
Scott Padgett	41	43	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.03	12	8	4	18.0	17.2	0.75	16.0	16.3	-0.26
Steve Francis	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.03	12	8	4	17.7	17.2	0.52	15.8	17.1	-1.27
Bostjan Nachbar	35	37	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.11	11	9	2	16.8	18.1	-1.25	15.0	17.0	-2.03
Moochie Norris	36	36	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.20	14	6	8	18.4	17.0	1.38	17.1	15.4	1.69
Torraye Braggs	30	28	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.07	8	12	-4	17.0	17.9	-0.82	16.3	16.1	0.23
Jim Jackson	44	45	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	23	-26	17.9	17.2	0.76	16.2	16.0	0.15
Kelvin Cato	35	37	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	22	-24	17.5	17.6	-0.18	15.3	16.8	-1.51
Alton Ford	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	16.7	17.6	-0.85	20.3	16.0	4.36
Mike Wilks	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	19	-18	16.6	17.6	-1.03	16.2	16.1	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 77, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.78,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
NYK 113, IND 121	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1	95.2%
POR 80, DAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1	95.2%