NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	8.2 [224]		MVP	Mike James (MIA): +22.2%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	7.6 [207]		LVP	Jerome Williams (TOR): -20.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.11	-0.01	8	83%	0.25	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Vladimir Stepania	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	5	67%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	15	56%	0.18	1	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Travis Best	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	3	117%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	58%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	13	46%	0.08	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.04
Brian Grant	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ken Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	39%	-0.07	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Caron Butler	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.07,0.05	0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.01	16	53%	0.24	4	-0.19	4	50%	-0.03
Mamadou N'diaye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	61%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.13	-0.14	0.02	21	65%	0.11	1	-0.13	9	89%	0.02
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	10	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.05	0.03	13	37%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.28,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.16	-0.07	-0.02	14	30%	-0.16	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.6	24.3	16.6	26.1	2.3	36.5	131.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.8%

MIA +4.7%

TOR -2.9%

MIA +3.1%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.9	17.8	15.5	117.0	112.5	101.6
season	16.3	16.2		94.6	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.9		105.1	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	12.9	16.2	15.9	14.9
TOR	15.8	18.4	18.8	18.4	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	46	45	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.45	16	-12	28	14.0	15.9	-1.81	18.4	17.2	1.24
LaPhonso Ellis	47	47	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.37	17	-13	30	14.4	15.5	-1.04	19.0	16.5	2.45
Sean Lampley	50	49	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.44	8	-4	12	14.9	14.9	-0.02	18.0	17.5	0.50
Rasual Butler	76	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-2	8	15.0	14.6	0.38	17.6	19.3	-1.66
Ken Johnson	62	62	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.47	-4	8	-12	14.3	16.3	-1.99	17.6	18.3	-0.69
Eddie House	19	18	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.05	8	-4	12	12.7	15.5	-2.84	18.1	17.8	0.30
Vladimir Stepania	10	10	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	-1	6	18.1	14.5	3.60	17.8	17.8	-0.02
Brian Grant	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	4	-4	16.2	14.7	1.55	17.3	17.9	-0.56
Anthony Carter	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	6	-8	16.5	14.6	1.91	16.2	18.1	-1.86
Travis Best	20	21	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.13	-5	9	-14	16.2	14.5	1.74	18.8	17.5	1.30
Malik Allen	45	45	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.01	-10	14	-24	15.2	14.7	0.50	17.0	18.6	-1.58
Caron Butler	40	41	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	0.03	-19	23	-42	15.7	14.3	1.40	17.2	18.4	-1.21

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mamadou N'diaye	54	56	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.08	5	-9	14	17.8	17.8	-0.01	15.3	14.2	1.18
Jelani McCoy	25	24	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	3	-10	19.1	17.3	1.76	14.4	15.1	-0.68
Chris Jefferies	71	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.26	-1	-3	2	17.2	20.2	-3.00	14.3	17.0	-2.67
Jerome Williams	81	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-4	4	17.9	16.9	1.04	15.1	12.5	2.59
Morris Peterson	84	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-3	2	17.6	22.5	-4.90	15.0	12.0	3.05
Rafer Alston	85	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	-1	-2	17.6	23.7	-6.05	15.0	11.3	3.70
Michael Bradley	40	40	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.44	-13	9	-22	18.8	17.0	1.80	14.7	15.1	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.54,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.55,0.21,0.43,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, SAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.53,0.39,0.28,0.17,0.05,0	91.5%
LAL 117, SAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.79,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.86,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.47,0.16,0.09,0.05,0	91.3%
SEA 102, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.53,0.73,0.87,0.76,0.86,0.69,0.63,0.23,0.15,0	90.4%