NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	100		Excitement	7.5 [303]		MVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (SEA): +20.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	107		Comeback	2.0 [280]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -25.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.16	0.05	0.03	16	74%	0.20	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Adrian Griffin	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	87%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	15	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	20	56%	0.07	4	-0.16	8	75%	-0.06
Michael Finley	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.25	-0.17	-0.09	-0.00	18	28%	-0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.08	0.01	6	100%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.02	-0.02	18	71%	0.26	2	-0.09	6	83%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.00	18	67%	0.18	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Joseph Forte	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.10	3	-0.13	4	75%	0.04
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	20%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	64%	0.04	5	-0.13	6	67%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	9	37%	-0.07	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.08	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	67.3	1.7	28.4	14.0	26.2	2.4	35.2	175.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +22.9%

SEA +23.9%

SEA +22.8%

DAL -17.5%

DAL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SEA	NBA	DAL	SEA	NBA
this game	14.6	16.7	15.5	108.7	116.3	101.6
season	15.1	16.5		108.6	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.3		102.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.7	13.8	14.6	14.5	14.6
SEA	17.0	15.0	19.7	15.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	31	31	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-11	15	15.6	14.1	1.53	18.0	16.0	2.00
Walt Williams	11	10	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-8	9	11.3	15.1	-3.81	14.9	16.9	-1.99
Raja Bell	28	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-5	3	16.2	13.9	2.33	18.6	15.8	2.84
Raef LaFrentz	22	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-7	7	15.9	14.2	1.68	16.3	16.8	-0.46
Michael Finley	66	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.26	-1	-6	5	15.1	13.5	1.58	16.9	16.2	0.67
Shawn Bradley	18	15	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	4	-15	13.7	14.9	-1.20	15.0	17.0	-2.00
Dirk Nowitzki	83	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-6	5	14.5	16.2	-1.76	16.6	17.1	-0.49
Adrian Griffin	64	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.23	-9	2	-11	14.1	15.8	-1.66	17.2	15.4	1.79
Steve Nash	72	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	1	-9	14.7	14.5	0.17	16.1	18.6	-2.52
Nick Van Exel	65	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.29	-8	1	-9	14.1	16.0	-1.89	15.9	18.5	-2.56

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	70	70	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.34	19	-12	31	16.1	18.4	-2.28	14.8	14.0	0.89
Vladimir Radmanovic	56	56	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.24	14	-7	21	15.4	18.7	-3.27	14.4	15.0	-0.56
Ray Allen	82	83	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	2	3	16.7	16.6	0.08	14.5	15.7	-1.15
Kevin Ollie	51	50	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	4	-1	16.8	16.5	0.34	14.4	14.9	-0.42
Rashard Lewis	85	84	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.34	1	6	-5	16.5	19.3	-2.83	14.4	17.5	-3.14
Elden Campbell	35	37	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.08	10	-3	13	16.9	16.5	0.43	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Joseph Forte	1	0	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	9	-11	0.0	16.9	-16.86	0.0	14.6	-14.63
Predrag Drobnjak	36	36	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	14	-21	18.7	15.4	3.27	15.0	14.4	0.56
Reggie Evans	44	44	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	15	-23	17.9	15.5	2.41	15.3	14.0	1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.54,0.67,0.81,0.63,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 101, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	92.4%
TOR 99, ATL 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.94,1,1	92.2%
NJN 92, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.84,0.84,0.91,1,1	92.1%