NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	7.6 [335]		MVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (ATL): +16.1%
Atlanta Hawks	105		Comeback	1.8 [713]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -25.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	12	64%	0.15	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
DeMarre Carroll	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.04	0.02	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	0.02
Norman Powell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	10	48%	0.04	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	12	44%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	-0.06	0.03	11	62%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Delon Wright	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25	-0.07	-0.17	0.01	30	44%	-0.11	3	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.07	0.00	13	74%	0.26	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.07	0.01	7	56%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.05	13	66%	0.11	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.05
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,0,0,-0.06,-0.02,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.04	18	59%	0.13	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	39%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	57%	0.10	4	-0.16	10	40%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	32.3	15.4	22.4	2.7	41.2	138.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +82.2%

TOR -5.3%

ATL +6.3%

TOR -33.6%

ATL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.0	14.8	98.0	106.1	107.7
season	15.2	14.4		110.0	104.2
opponent	14.9	14.9		104.6	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.0	15.2	13.2	14.3	14.8
ATL	16.4	12.5	14.5	12.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Tucker	56	54	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.22	5	-11	16	14.0	15.8	-1.79	13.0	15.1	-2.11
Patrick Patterson	44	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-2	-2	13.2	16.1	-2.80	12.3	15.1	-2.80
Jonas Valanciunas	60	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.17	0	-6	6	16.2	12.8	3.45	15.0	12.4	2.58
Delon Wright	27	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-1	-4	15.7	14.5	1.19	13.6	14.1	-0.56
Cory Joseph	74	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-5	4	14.5	15.7	-1.19	14.1	13.6	0.56
Norman Powell	38	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-1	-4	15.4	14.5	0.99	14.0	13.9	0.06
DeMar DeRozan	77	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-2	-2	14.4	16.2	-1.86	14.2	13.2	1.02
DeMarre Carroll	71	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	14.3	16.1	-1.76	13.6	14.8	-1.15
Serge Ibaka	58	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	4	-14	16.2	13.0	3.15	15.0	12.4	2.58

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	53	55	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	-2	10	12.5	15.6	-3.04	14.2	15.5	-1.31
Dennis Schroder	73	73	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.34	2	4	-2	14.1	13.6	0.52	14.9	14.6	0.36
Tim Hardaway Jr.	73	75	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	-2	10	13.4	15.5	-2.04	14.3	16.4	-2.14
Thabo Sefolosha	52	55	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.23	4	2	2	13.6	14.4	-0.77	14.0	15.8	-1.83
Paul Millsap	75	76	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	0	6	14.2	13.3	0.88	14.5	15.7	-1.18
Dwight Howard	67	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	4	-2	15.0	11.7	3.31	16.1	12.3	3.78
Kent Bazemore	57	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.32	-2	8	-10	14.8	12.8	2.04	15.7	13.7	1.96
Jose Calderon	26	28	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	2	2	13.6	14.1	-0.52	14.6	14.9	-0.36
Taurean Prince	19	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	8	-10	13.7	14.0	-0.28	15.3	14.7	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.54,0.66,0.81,0.72,0.83,0.99,1	93.7%
UTA 97, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	93.1%
OKC 89, NOP 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.89,0.98,1,1	92.6%