NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	5.5 [681]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +6.1%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	1.2 [890]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -23.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	7	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	14	71%	0.17	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Tim Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Mason	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	14	44%	-0.07	1	-0.04	11	82%	-0.01
Gary Payton	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	17	44%	-0.05	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	14	62%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Malik Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.07	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.04	15	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	11	27%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	9	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	22%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.17	-0.08	-0.02	20	33%	-0.17	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.0	26.2	16.6	27.4	2.4	33.6	134.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.2%

MIL +4.0%

MIL +1.0%

MIA -0.4%

MIL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.5	105.3	95.8	101.6
season	15.4	16.3		106.3	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.8		100.7	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.0	15.4	13.8	16.3	15.4
MIA	13.9	16.6	14.4	15.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	77	76	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.22	13	-4	17	15.5	14.8	0.73	15.1	14.2	0.92
Ervin Johnson	24	25	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	-2	13	15.8	15.2	0.62	17.8	13.9	3.87
Desmond Mason	82	80	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	0	9	15.4	15.0	0.43	14.2	18.7	-4.42
Michael Redd	34	36	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	3	3	15.7	15.2	0.57	16.5	14.0	2.54
Toni Kukoc	44	44	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	2	5	15.5	15.3	0.16	16.0	14.0	2.05
Tim Thomas	69	68	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.23	-1	10	-11	15.2	15.7	-0.50	14.7	15.7	-1.00
Sam Cassell	74	76	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	7	-5	15.1	16.4	-1.36	14.4	17.3	-2.89
Anthony Mason	71	70	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.15	-2	11	-13	15.2	15.8	-0.62	13.9	17.8	-3.87

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-10	11	15.0	14.9	0.13	15.6	15.2	0.42
Eddie House	55	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.18	4	-13	17	14.3	15.8	-1.47	15.0	15.9	-0.94
LaPhonso Ellis	13	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-5	1	15.5	14.9	0.68	13.6	15.6	-2.03
Malik Allen	68	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-5	1	14.9	15.2	-0.33	15.3	15.6	-0.34
Mike James	43	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-6	3	13.8	15.9	-2.16	15.5	15.2	0.33
Rasual Butler	34	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-1	-7	16.2	14.2	2.01	15.5	15.3	0.27
Vladimir Stepania	8	8	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-2	-5	17.0	14.8	2.24	18.7	15.1	3.69
Brian Grant	84	84	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	15.1	13.5	1.59	15.6	13.7	1.86
Travis Best	52	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	0	-9	14.7	15.2	-0.52	15.3	15.4	-0.05
Caron Butler	79	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	1	-11	15.2	13.9	1.29	15.2	16.4	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.15,0,0	94.2%
OKC 116, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
BOS 104, SEA 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%