NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	5.9 [614]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +26.4%
Seattle SuperSonics	96		Comeback	1.2 [1048]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): -9.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.15	0.10	-0.01	27	57%	0.30	1	-0.04	11	91%	0.02
Eddie House	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.09	0.11	0.00	8	68%	0.20	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	6	71%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	13	38%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.03
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	22	42%	-0.06	1	-0.04	11	64%	-0.03

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.05	-0.03	11	58%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	-0.01	0.05	8	79%	0.10	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.03
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	4	64%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	23	50%	0.10	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.05	10	59%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.8	34.2	19.4	28.3	2.7	37.2	149.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +27.4%

BOS +2.6%

BOS +8.5%

BOS +16.4%

SEA -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SEA	NBA	BOS	SEA	NBA
this game	16.9	14.4	15.4	113.0	104.3	105.7
season	15.6	14.5		108.0	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.9		107.9	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.0	16.4	17.4	16.9	16.9
SEA	16.5	12.4	14.7	14.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	82	84	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.16	15	-7	22	16.6	19.2	-2.58	14.8	9.7	5.10
Kendrick Perkins	44	46	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-4	16	17.2	16.6	0.62	15.0	13.8	1.28
Kevin Garnett	63	65	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	0	8	17.7	15.2	2.48	14.2	14.8	-0.58
Eddie House	35	34	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.22	2	6	-4	16.5	17.1	-0.63	13.8	14.7	-0.92
Ray Allen	73	74	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.17	3	5	-2	17.1	16.1	1.07	14.1	15.6	-1.43
James Posey	48	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.35	-4	12	-16	16.6	17.2	-0.62	13.8	15.0	-1.28
Scot Pollard	27	26	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.16	2	6	-4	15.3	17.6	-2.22	15.2	14.1	1.10
Rajon Rondo	57	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	2	4	17.1	16.5	0.63	14.7	13.8	0.92
Tony Allen	29	26	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	10	-12	17.1	16.8	0.34	13.8	14.7	-0.88
Brian Scalabrine	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	10	-12	13.5	17.0	-3.48	5.0	14.5	-9.51

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	12	12	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-10	12	10.8	14.9	-4.10	16.7	16.9	-0.18
Delonte West	50	51	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.33	8	-16	24	13.6	15.4	-1.80	16.1	17.9	-1.76
Chris Wilcox	53	52	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-11	14	14.3	14.6	-0.33	16.9	16.9	-0.08
Mickael Gelabale	22	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-4	0	13.0	14.8	-1.84	16.6	17.0	-0.45
Jeff Green	28	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-3	-2	14.0	14.6	-0.63	16.3	17.2	-0.89
Kurt Thomas	55	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-1	-6	15.0	13.5	1.49	17.6	15.9	1.70
Damien Wilkins	36	33	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	0	-8	15.3	13.8	1.53	17.8	16.4	1.33
Wally Szczerbiak	46	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-2	-4	13.9	14.9	-0.98	16.5	17.3	-0.79
Kevin Durant	70	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-4	0	14.8	13.0	1.84	17.0	16.6	0.45
Nick Collison	36	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	1	-10	15.2	13.9	1.35	16.5	17.2	-0.74
Earl Watson	52	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.12	-10	2	-12	15.0	13.6	1.33	17.5	16.2	1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 116, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
SAC 111, VAN 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0,0,0	94.2%
SAS 104, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%