NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	5.9 [608]		MVP	Corliss Williamson (DET): +14.9%
Los Angeles Lakers	95		Comeback	1.2 [962]		LVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): -12.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.03	-0.03	11	73%	0.15	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	4	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	6	83%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	13	46%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	11%	-0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.12	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	16	47%	-0.02	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Clifford Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	13	47%	-0.05	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.07	-0.04	24	62%	0.20	5	-0.07	8	87%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.03	22	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.04
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	7	79%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.8	29.1	16.6	26.2	2.6	27.0	128.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +23.9%

LAL +1.0%

LAL +18.6%

LAL +7.2%

DET -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	LAL	NBA	DET	LAL	NBA
this game	18.3	17.5	15.5	104.9	118.8	101.6
season	16.8	15.4		101.7	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		102.8	97.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.7	16.2	17.4	23.1	18.3
LAL	14.3	18.1	17.8	20.6	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-8	6	17.5	22.1	-4.59	16.9	20.3	-3.38
Michael Curry	35	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	-3	-4	18.1	18.4	-0.38	16.6	18.1	-1.48
Tayshaun Prince	24	25	-0.14	-0.35	0.21	-0.17	1	-11	12	19.5	17.8	1.75	19.6	16.5	3.11
Chucky Atkins	25	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-7	4	19.2	17.9	1.28	19.0	16.8	2.22
Mehmet Okur	33	35	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-9	8	18.9	17.9	1.02	18.8	16.5	2.26
Chauncey Billups	56	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-3	-4	17.9	19.2	-1.28	16.8	19.0	-2.22
Richard Hamilton	60	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	-3	-4	17.5	20.3	-2.78	16.5	20.2	-3.76
Corliss Williamson	43	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-3	-4	18.8	17.7	1.06	18.3	16.5	1.79
Clifford Robinson	62	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.11	-17	7	-24	18.8	16.5	2.28	17.4	17.8	-0.36

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	68	69	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-5	20	17.0	20.6	-3.63	18.1	19.3	-1.25
Derek Fisher	61	64	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.11	15	-5	20	17.0	19.0	-1.97	18.3	18.0	0.34
Kobe Bryant	74	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.26	5	5	0	17.4	18.7	-1.26	18.2	18.9	-0.64
Rick Fox	44	47	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	-1	12	16.5	18.7	-2.12	18.0	18.6	-0.60
Robert Horry	56	57	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.18	3	7	-4	16.8	19.0	-2.20	18.0	19.0	-1.04
Devean George	36	34	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.22	-1	11	-12	18.7	16.5	2.12	18.6	18.0	0.60
Mark Madsen	18	17	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	8	-6	19.2	17.0	2.15	19.1	18.1	1.00
Kareem Rush	25	24	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	10	-10	18.9	16.9	2.07	18.2	18.3	-0.03
Samaki Walker	18	19	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	10	-10	19.9	16.8	3.15	19.2	18.0	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.87,0.95,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, CHH 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.63,0.79,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.96,0.93,0.92,1	93.5%
MEM 86, CHA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1	93.4%
IND 88, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.4%