NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	8.6 [170]		MVP	Raja Bell (DAL): +4.3%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	2.8 [199]		LVP	Drew Gooden (ORL): -18.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	64%	0.11	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	14	55%	0.00	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	-0.02	20	45%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.03	-0.12	0.02	21	55%	0.02	2	-0.13	5	60%	-0.07
Walt Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.14	-0.00	-0.13	0.02	9	50%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	3	67%	0.11	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.06
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.08,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.01	14	67%	0.17	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	20	57%	0.07	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.05	-0.13	0.01	14	54%	-0.03	3	-0.15	9	89%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	33.0	16.5	24.5	2.5	36.0	138.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +22.5%

ORL +14.0%

ORL +30.0%

DAL -9.7%

DAL -6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ORL	NBA	DAL	ORL	NBA
this game	17.2	14.1	15.5	102.2	105.4	101.6
season	15.1	14.6		108.6	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.3		103.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.4	17.0	19.0	16.7	17.2
ORL	12.4	15.7	13.1	15.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	17	19	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.02	7	-12	19	15.9	17.6	-1.67	16.5	13.5	3.05
Evan Eschmeyer	8	8	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-9	13	17.1	17.3	-0.13	16.4	13.9	2.49
Nick Van Exel	58	59	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.22	11	-16	27	17.3	17.1	0.28	14.1	14.0	0.11
Raef LaFrentz	25	26	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.09	4	-9	13	17.2	17.2	-0.00	13.7	14.2	-0.51
Raja Bell	34	34	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.10	-12	7	-19	17.4	17.1	0.32	13.3	14.5	-1.22
Walt Williams	60	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-8	11	17.4	17.0	0.42	14.5	13.3	1.26
Michael Finley	82	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-5	5	17.2	17.8	-0.59	13.9	16.2	-2.35
Shawn Bradley	29	30	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.09	-17	12	-29	16.7	17.5	-0.86	14.4	13.9	0.50
Steve Nash	62	64	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.30	-12	7	-19	17.4	16.8	0.61	13.6	15.3	-1.71
Dirk Nowitzki	80	79	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.28	-13	8	-21	17.4	16.1	1.31	13.9	15.1	-1.15

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordan Giricek	81	78	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	-1	7	14.6	10.7	3.94	17.5	15.9	1.54
Tracy McGrady	81	82	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	-3	11	14.3	12.7	1.64	17.3	16.8	0.51
Drew Gooden	80	80	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	0	5	14.6	10.7	3.96	17.5	15.5	1.93
Darrell Armstrong	52	49	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	2	1	13.5	14.8	-1.31	16.8	17.8	-0.97
Andrew DeClercq	36	38	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.07	15	-10	25	14.4	13.9	0.57	17.9	16.8	1.17
Pat Garrity	52	48	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.42	-7	12	-19	14.1	14.1	0.04	17.3	17.1	0.19
Jacque Vaughn	62	63	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	0	5	12.9	16.6	-3.73	17.1	17.5	-0.42
Shawn Kemp	21	17	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.10	-10	15	-25	13.7	14.2	-0.56	14.9	17.8	-2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.45,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.85,1	91.1%
NYK 94, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.54,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.84,1	91.0%
CLE 76, DET 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.72,1	90.9%