NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	96		Excitement	2.6 [1204]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +8.2%
San Antonio Spurs	105		Comeback	1.3 [983]		LVP	Metta World Peace (IND): -8.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.16	0.00	0.11	13	79%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	7	72%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.05	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Primoz Brezec	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Brad Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	14	51%	0.00	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.02
Ron Mercer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	-0.06	6	33%	-0.02	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	15	35%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	15	64%	0.13	2	-0.05	3	33%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	10	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	70%	0.00	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	40%	-0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	9	58%	0.01	4	-0.05	8	62%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	7	44%	-0.00	3	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	62%	0.01	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	2.7	26.2	16.4	31.6	2.3	29.7	141.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.8%

IND -2.2%

SAS +6.3%

IND -1.6%

SAS +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	SAS	NBA	IND	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	15.0	15.5	102.1	112.9	101.6
season	15.4	15.7		102.2	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.5		96.9	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.3	19.9	14.9	15.0	15.8
SAS	13.4	16.9	13.3	16.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	27	27	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.06	3	-12	15	14.8	16.3	-1.44	14.7	15.1	-0.36
Primoz Brezec	18	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.41	14	-23	37	13.7	16.4	-2.69	16.6	14.6	1.98
Austin Croshere	41	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.47	11	-20	31	17.8	14.4	3.40	16.9	13.4	3.55
Ron Mercer	15	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	0	-9	18.7	15.3	3.36	13.1	15.3	-2.19
Erick Strickland	60	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.39	6	-15	21	16.3	15.1	1.18	15.7	13.5	2.19
Al Harrington	61	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	1	-11	15.9	15.7	0.17	15.5	14.0	1.48
Reggie Miller	42	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.29	-18	9	-27	16.6	15.2	1.41	15.2	14.7	0.51
Jeff Foster	52	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.52	9	-18	27	15.2	16.6	-1.41	14.7	15.2	-0.51
Jamaal Tinsley	51	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-7	5	14.2	17.7	-3.51	14.4	15.6	-1.20
Jermaine O'Neal	66	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.17	-20	11	-31	15.7	16.3	-0.63	13.8	17.6	-3.79
Brad Miller	37	38	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.36	-29	20	-49	16.1	15.6	0.49	13.5	16.0	-2.46

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	43	45	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.40	28	-19	47	14.7	15.1	-0.40	18.3	13.6	4.65
Tim Duncan	66	67	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.15	19	-10	29	14.2	16.7	-2.46	15.7	16.2	-0.54
Tony Parker	58	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.22	21	-12	33	14.0	16.5	-2.50	15.6	16.3	-0.75
David Robinson	27	29	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.40	26	-17	43	13.6	15.5	-1.97	18.1	14.8	3.22
Stephen Jackson	49	49	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.19	17	-8	25	14.5	15.5	-0.99	16.1	15.5	0.63
Danny Ferry	41	43	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.36	-5	14	-19	15.8	14.3	1.43	15.7	16.0	-0.31
Manu Ginobili	39	40	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	10	-11	15.2	14.8	0.47	15.4	16.2	-0.81
Malik Rose	55	54	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.38	-9	18	-27	15.5	14.1	1.40	14.6	17.5	-2.89
Steve Kerr	31	31	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.36	-9	18	-27	16.1	14.4	1.66	16.4	15.6	0.77
Kevin Willis	25	24	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.46	-14	23	-37	16.1	14.5	1.54	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Steven Smith	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.38	-13	22	-35	16.0	14.8	1.24	13.3	16.3	-3.00
Speedy Claxton	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.44	-15	24	-39	16.1	14.7	1.41	13.2	16.4	-3.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 87, MIL 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
UTA 86, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
DEN 113, IND 144	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%