NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	3.3 [1171]		MVP	Darren Collison (IND): +15.4%
Indiana Pacers	144		Comeback	1.1 [627]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -10.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Gary Forbes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	9	73%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Nene	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	7	68%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	-0.00	-0.04	6	64%	0.06	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	13	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.13	-0.00	0.14	9	74%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	100%	-0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.10	-0.00	0.13	14	63%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	15	38%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.25	0.01	0.11	14	100%	0.17	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.32	0.01	0.20	13	91%	0.14	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.17	0.02	0.06	10	95%	0.13	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.06	11	67%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	5	40%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.13	-0.00	0.14	12	77%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	4	20%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	27.2	16.4	25.5	1.7	28.1	126.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +43.0%

DEN -7.4%

IND +11.2%

IND +2.0%

IND +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	14.6	14.4	15.5	115.3	142.6	105.7
season	14.3	14.7		110.7	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.5		104.5	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	13.2	15.0	13.8	14.6
IND	11.6	16.1	15.0	15.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Renaldo Balkman	23	24	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-35	39	13.6	14.9	-1.28	14.9	14.2	0.73
Shelden Williams	37	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.20	5	-36	41	14.8	14.5	0.31	12.6	15.5	-2.84
Melvin Ely	31	32	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-29	27	13.4	15.1	-1.71	15.9	13.6	2.31
J.R. Smith	49	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.31	-16	-15	-1	14.3	14.9	-0.53	14.2	14.5	-0.38
Arron Afflalo	68	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	-20	9	14.5	14.8	-0.35	14.1	14.9	-0.85
Gary Forbes	43	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.50	-25	-6	-19	14.1	15.0	-0.93	14.4	14.3	0.07
Ty Lawson	58	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.28	-20	-11	-9	13.9	15.6	-1.75	14.7	14.0	0.70
Nene	37	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.19	-17	-14	-3	15.8	13.8	2.00	13.6	14.8	-1.17
Chauncey Billups	47	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	-14	-3	15.6	13.6	1.97	14.5	14.2	0.36
Al Harrington	43	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.50	-30	-1	-29	14.3	14.8	-0.43	15.0	13.8	1.20
Carmelo Anthony	54	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.38	-26	-5	-21	15.6	13.4	2.15	14.4	14.3	0.09

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Granger	60	59	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.13	23	8	15	13.1	16.2	-3.10	14.8	14.2	0.64
Mike Dunleavy	50	49	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.61	34	-3	37	14.1	14.6	-0.51	15.5	13.7	1.76
Roy Hibbert	53	51	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.29	23	8	15	12.8	16.0	-3.21	15.3	13.8	1.46
Josh McRoberts	64	63	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.42	25	6	19	13.9	15.1	-1.23	14.8	14.2	0.65
Tyler Hansbrough	60	57	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.29	20	11	9	15.9	12.0	3.88	14.0	15.4	-1.33
Darren Collison	65	62	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.11	13	18	-5	14.4	14.3	0.08	15.2	13.6	1.59
T.J. Ford	36	36	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.29	18	13	5	14.3	14.4	-0.08	13.6	15.2	-1.59
Brandon Rush	62	61	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.18	9	22	-13	14.9	13.6	1.29	13.8	15.9	-2.05
Paul George	26	24	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	30	-29	15.7	13.9	1.75	15.0	14.5	0.49
Solomon Jones	25	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	37	-43	15.0	14.2	0.80	13.8	14.8	-1.01
Dahntay Jones	4	3	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	36	-41	20.2	14.1	6.14	8.0	14.8	-6.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 87, MIL 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
UTA 86, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
TOR 109, WAS 129	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%