NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	8.0 [247]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +15.6%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	2.1 [728]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -19.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16	0.06	0.09	0.00	13	62%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.04	-0.05	15	55%	0.16	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.03
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.11	0.01	15	52%	-0.06	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	5	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	12	44%	0.02	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	13	29%	-0.10	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	14	41%	-0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.04	0.03	14	75%	0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.09	0.00	11	50%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.01	16	57%	0.12	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.07	0.01	4	67%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.07	-0.01	5	43%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.09	0.02	18	60%	-0.03	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.05
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	5	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	25.5	15.7	26.0	2.6	26.2	122.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +74.5%

MIL -15.1%

MIL -26.5%

SAC +14.8%

SAC +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	14.0	15.5	96.9	107.4	101.6
season	15.4	14.0		106.3	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.6	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.9	15.5	18.6	17.4	16.2
SAC	12.8	12.6	14.1	16.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Ollie	37	38	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.06	4	-13	17	17.5	15.3	2.17	13.7	14.2	-0.47
Dan Gadzuric	14	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-8	7	17.4	16.0	1.38	11.7	14.4	-2.64
Toni Kukoc	60	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.08	-9	0	-9	16.6	15.5	1.04	13.6	14.6	-0.98
Tim Thomas	59	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-9	9	16.1	16.4	-0.33	14.3	13.5	0.79
Michael Redd	49	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	2	-13	16.6	15.7	0.93	13.6	14.4	-0.82
Sam Cassell	67	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-2	-5	15.3	18.3	-3.06	14.3	13.2	1.15
Ervin Johnson	56	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-4	-1	15.7	16.9	-1.20	15.2	12.1	3.19
Jason Caffey	58	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	-3	-3	16.2	16.1	0.16	13.6	14.4	-0.80
Ray Allen	80	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	1	-11	15.9	17.3	-1.36	13.8	14.7	-0.86

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	75	75	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.30	15	-6	21	13.9	14.2	-0.29	15.9	17.3	-1.42
Doug Christie	65	67	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.27	11	-2	13	14.2	13.5	0.68	15.8	17.1	-1.28
Peja Stojakovic	77	78	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.23	8	1	7	13.8	14.9	-1.14	16.0	16.9	-0.94
Vlade Divac	77	79	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	5	-1	14.1	13.3	0.85	16.2	16.1	0.14
Bobby Jackson	46	47	0.34	0.15	0.19	0.17	6	3	3	13.3	14.6	-1.25	17.6	14.8	2.86
Hedo Turkoglu	24	24	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.06	0	9	-9	14.2	13.9	0.27	17.1	15.9	1.21
Mike Bibby	70	68	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	9	-9	14.7	12.0	2.62	15.3	18.3	-3.03
Jim Jackson	41	42	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.07	1	8	-7	13.3	14.5	-1.23	16.9	15.6	1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.6,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.9,0.84,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 107, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.44,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.9,1	93.1%
HOU 98, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.85,0.93,1,1,1	92.7%
ATL 83, MIN 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.53,0.54,0.69,0.78,0.94,0.83,1	92.4%