NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	114		Excitement	7.9 [261]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +24.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	120		Comeback	5.4 [120]		LVP	Jason Caffey (MIL): -20.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.23,0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	21	59%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13	0.12	0.03	0.01	21	60%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	23	56%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	45%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Walt Williams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	5	30%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.25	0.16	0.12	0.03	18	71%	0.27	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17	0.17	0.04	0.12	-0.01	10	62%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.12	0.00	8	67%	0.20	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.11,-0.05,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.09	0.01	23	57%	0.23	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	6	93%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	3	50%	-0.03	4	-0.17	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	0.8	33.2	17.4	28.8	3.0	34.3	147.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +63.8%

MIL +16.3%

DAL -4.2%

DAL -27.4%

MIL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIL	NBA	DAL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.0	15.5	120.0	126.3	101.6
season	15.1	15.4		108.6	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.3		106.5	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.3	16.2	15.2	15.7	15.4
MIL	15.1	14.3	14.8	15.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	25	25	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-11	16	15.2	15.4	-0.27	17.0	14.2	2.83
Adrian Griffin	33	34	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.16	7	-13	20	14.3	15.9	-1.62	13.8	15.6	-1.86
Evan Eschmeyer	9	10	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-6	6	16.7	15.2	1.45	15.4	14.9	0.49
Eduardo Najera	16	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-4	2	16.7	15.1	1.60	16.1	14.7	1.40
Shawn Bradley	30	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-3	0	15.7	15.2	0.45	15.0	14.9	0.06
Dirk Nowitzki	74	74	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.33	5	-11	16	14.4	18.8	-4.43	15.2	14.2	0.99
Steve Nash	58	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-2	-2	14.8	16.3	-1.54	15.1	14.8	0.32
Raef LaFrentz	44	42	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	15.7	15.0	0.69	14.3	15.5	-1.16
Raja Bell	42	45	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	9	-24	16.1	14.8	1.36	14.2	15.6	-1.40
Michael Finley	82	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	5	-16	15.8	12.7	3.09	15.1	14.0	1.12
Nick Van Exel	62	61	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.41	-6	0	-6	15.7	14.7	1.01	14.8	15.3	-0.52

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	54	53	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.39	14	-8	22	14.7	15.3	-0.67	16.3	14.2	2.09
Ray Allen	83	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-4	14	15.1	14.2	0.81	15.2	16.1	-0.83
Kevin Ollie	36	37	0.45	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-2	10	13.2	16.0	-2.84	15.5	15.3	0.21
Jason Caffey	47	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	4	-2	14.6	15.3	-0.67	15.6	15.2	0.40
Tim Thomas	71	72	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	11	-16	15.6	13.2	2.40	15.0	16.4	-1.36
Michael Redd	53	53	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.11	8	-2	10	14.2	15.9	-1.70	16.6	13.7	2.90
Sam Cassell	61	62	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	7	-8	15.6	13.8	1.81	14.9	16.2	-1.31
Anthony Mason	66	67	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.20	-4	10	-14	15.4	13.9	1.48	14.3	17.8	-3.49
Ervin Johnson	4	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	8	-10	18.5	14.8	3.70	15.0	15.4	-0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.16,0.17,0.26,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.77,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 91, NOH 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.37,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.92,1	92.4%
LAC 85, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,1	92.2%
TOR 95, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.22,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.79,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.98,0.99,1	91.9%