NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	96		Excitement	8.0 [241]		MVP	Alan Henderson (ATL): +15.2%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	5.4 [362]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (ATL): -14.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alan Henderson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.01	6	100%	0.15	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	80%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	21	52%	0.07	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Jason Terry	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.04	15	44%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dion Glover	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	26%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	6	31%	-0.08	1	-0.05	4	25%	-0.07
Glenn Robinson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	20	53%	0.02	5	-0.16	9	89%	0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.17,-0.01,0.05,0.15	0.15	-0.03	0.16	-0.01	20	47%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.07	0.02	16	59%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	53%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	0.04	-0.03	10	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.03
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	12	46%	0.00	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.04
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	12	36%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.6	32.0	15.7	26.3	2.4	39.3	146.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -3.5%

TOR +18.7%

TOR +13.0%

TOR +24.3%

ATL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.8	15.0	15.5	103.2	103.2	101.6
season	15.1	16.2		99.5	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.7		105.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	17.4	16.4	15.5	15.8
TOR	15.2	13.3	17.1	14.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ira Newble	35	34	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.11	3	-4	7	15.4	16.1	-0.69	15.7	14.6	1.14
Alan Henderson	53	54	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.04	5	-6	11	15.6	16.2	-0.61	13.8	16.5	-2.69
Darvin Ham	35	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	2	-5	16.0	15.7	0.32	14.9	15.1	-0.19
Dan Dickau	22	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-2	3	15.3	16.0	-0.73	13.6	15.4	-1.81
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	62	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.38	5	-6	11	16.0	15.4	0.61	16.1	12.5	3.64
Jason Terry	73	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.51	8	-9	17	15.8	16.1	-0.35	14.7	16.3	-1.68
Glenn Robinson	72	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.58	-1	0	-1	15.7	16.3	-0.65	14.4	17.1	-2.79
Theo Ratliff	49	47	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.52	-9	8	-17	15.7	16.0	-0.37	15.5	14.5	0.98
Dion Glover	64	64	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.40	-14	13	-27	16.5	14.2	2.31	15.7	13.5	2.22

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	74	72	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.56	13	-12	25	14.4	17.0	-2.57	15.8	15.8	0.02
Vince Carter	73	73	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.47	15	-14	29	14.8	15.6	-0.76	16.1	14.9	1.18
Jelani McCoy	36	37	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.18	21	-20	41	15.9	14.4	1.43	18.1	14.3	3.74
Voshon Lenard	71	70	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.32	13	-12	25	15.1	14.6	0.49	16.2	14.8	1.39
Antonio Davis	78	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.63	-9	10	-19	15.1	14.2	0.95	15.0	19.7	-4.75
Chris Jefferies	5	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	2	-3	13.4	15.1	-1.67	10.8	16.2	-5.34
Maceo Baston	3	2	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.02	-3	4	-7	18.3	14.9	3.47	13.0	15.9	-2.89
Jerome Williams	73	73	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.11	-7	8	-15	14.3	17.2	-2.85	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Rafer Alston	20	21	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	-0.09	-12	13	-25	17.0	14.4	2.57	15.8	15.8	-0.02
Morris Peterson	37	35	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	0.12	-25	26	-51	15.1	14.9	0.17	15.6	15.9	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 101, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.4,0.46,0.37,0.84,0.84,1	90.2%
MEM 92, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.48,0.37,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.76,0.99,1	90.0%
OKC 112, SAC 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.85,0.83,1	89.6%