NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Excitement	5.7 [636]		MVP	Earl Boykins (GSW): +14.2%
Golden State Warriors	107		Comeback	3.2 [400]		LVP	Rasho Nesterovic (MIN): -12.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	6	87%	0.13	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.04
Kevin Garnett	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	12	76%	0.14	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	9	57%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.05
Marc Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gary Trent	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.04	9	78%	0.05	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.04	8	55%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Igor Rakocevic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	8	29%	-0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.06	0.04	17	68%	0.17	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	7	78%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	18	55%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	9	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	18	42%	0.00	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	10	41%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	27.5	16.4	25.4	2.4	26.5	126.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +17.8%

MIN -18.8%

GSW +34.7%

GSW +21.0%

MIN -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	GSW	NBA	MIN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	16.0	15.5	102.1	110.3	101.6
season	14.9	14.6		104.0	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.8		106.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.6	14.3	15.0	12.1	13.8
GSW	15.7	12.9	17.0	19.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	39	38	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-16	23	12.4	14.7	-2.28	16.6	15.7	0.97
Rasho Nesterovic	50	51	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.11	-2	-7	5	14.4	13.1	1.31	15.5	16.7	-1.20
Gary Trent	34	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-13	17	13.9	13.7	0.19	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Joe Smith	61	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-7	5	12.5	16.0	-3.52	15.2	17.6	-2.34
Rod Strickland	58	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-2	-5	14.4	12.9	1.48	15.5	16.9	-1.43
Igor Rakocevic	34	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.28	1	-10	11	13.1	14.2	-1.09	16.0	16.0	-0.02
Marc Jackson	26	28	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-3	-3	14.2	13.6	0.60	15.7	16.2	-0.51
Kevin Garnett	74	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	1	-11	14.4	11.9	2.44	17.4	11.0	6.43
Wally Szczerbiak	48	49	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.11	-12	3	-15	15.0	12.6	2.33	16.3	15.7	0.58
Anthony Peeler	61	61	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.17	-21	12	-33	13.5	14.2	-0.69	16.0	16.1	-0.07

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	64	63	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-4	17	15.9	16.4	-0.49	13.9	13.5	0.38
Gilbert Arenas	89	88	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.17	13	-4	17	16.2	14.5	1.68	13.6	15.5	-1.86
Antawn Jamison	97	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	16.0	0.0	16.04	13.8	0.0	13.79
Chris Mills	27	27	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	1	7	19.3	14.8	4.46	12.3	14.4	-2.03
Erick Dampier	67	64	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.10	6	3	3	14.9	18.6	-3.70	14.3	12.8	1.52
Adonal Foyle	39	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	9	-9	18.1	14.7	3.36	13.6	13.9	-0.25
Mike Dunleavy	19	20	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	3	3	14.7	16.4	-1.62	12.8	14.1	-1.25
Bob Sura	13	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	11	-13	16.2	16.0	0.13	14.5	13.7	0.81
Troy Murphy	26	27	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.03	-3	12	-15	15.7	16.2	-0.53	13.2	14.0	-0.79
Jason Richardson	44	44	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	14	-19	14.7	17.1	-2.36	14.8	12.9	1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 90, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
POR 90, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%
CHI 93, DEN 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%