NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	90		Excitement	7.0 [390]		MVP	Rick Fox (LAL): +6.0%
New Orleans Hornets	82		Comeback	2.2 [615]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -19.9%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	28	55%	0.16	2	-0.11	10	100%	0.12
Robert Horry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	56%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	8	39%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.28,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.01	0.02	24	39%	-0.11	2	-0.09	11	45%	-0.09

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	71%	0.04	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	6	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	17	50%	0.04	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.02
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.12	-0.00	19	53%	-0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	12	44%	-0.07	1	-0.08	8	62%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	29.0	14.8	29.0	1.8	31.2	132.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +17.5%

LAL +8.8%

LAL +13.9%

LAL +7.6%

LAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	NOH	NBA	LAL	NOH	NBA
this game	16.3	16.1	15.5	100.0	93.2	101.6
season	15.4	15.9		105.0	101.6
opponent	15.6	15.1		99.6	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.6	14.8	14.8	18.2	16.3
NOH	15.8	17.2	14.6	16.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	56	55	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.19	21	-13	34	15.6	17.4	-1.89	16.8	14.9	1.94
Kobe Bryant	87	86	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-1	10	16.1	20.7	-4.55	16.0	19.0	-2.98
Shaquille O'Neal	77	73	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	5	-2	16.6	14.4	2.20	15.9	17.2	-1.34
Devean George	35	36	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	-5	18	15.7	16.6	-0.90	17.7	14.9	2.81
Kareem Rush	16	16	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	3	2	16.0	16.3	-0.32	18.6	15.5	3.10
Derek Fisher	77	74	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	6	-4	16.5	14.9	1.57	15.6	18.6	-2.95
Rick Fox	55	52	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.33	-5	13	-18	16.6	15.7	0.90	14.9	17.7	-2.81
Samaki Walker	47	48	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	16	-24	16.6	15.9	0.69	15.6	16.7	-1.07

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	24	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.14	-7	-1	-6	19.2	14.9	4.29	16.8	16.1	0.72
P.J. Brown	57	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.34	8	-16	24	14.9	18.2	-3.25	17.3	14.2	3.09
Robert Pack	10	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	-2	-4	20.6	15.5	5.09	12.0	16.9	-4.86
Jerome Moiso	14	13	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	4	-16	19.6	15.4	4.14	13.4	16.8	-3.37
David Wesley	75	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-11	14	15.6	19.0	-3.41	16.9	12.2	4.63
Stacey Augmon	13	12	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.07	-11	3	-14	19.0	15.6	3.41	12.2	16.9	-4.63
George Lynch	24	23	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	3	-14	17.0	15.7	1.25	14.0	17.1	-3.10
Baron Davis	78	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-6	4	15.5	20.6	-5.09	16.9	12.0	4.86
Jamal Mashburn	81	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-7	6	16.0	16.9	-0.83	16.6	12.0	4.63
Jamaal Magloire	64	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-7	6	14.9	19.2	-4.29	16.1	16.8	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.47,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.26,0.07,0.1,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.25,0.07,0,0,0	93.3%
ORL 104, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.09,0.02,0	92.6%
MIL 105, TOR 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.28,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	92.5%