NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	96		Excitement	7.3 [348]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +13.7%
Los Angeles Clippers	90		Comeback	2.2 [643]		LVP	Andre Miller (LAC): -17.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	17	57%	0.18	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03
Raef LaFrentz	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	5	71%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	18	56%	0.15	4	-0.11	7	100%	0.03
Walt Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	3	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Michael Finley	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.10	0.02	19	51%	-0.09	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	10	20%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.04	11	65%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	17	47%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Sean Rooks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	16	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06
Tremaine Fowlkes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	6	56%	0.04	3	-0.16	4	75%	-0.02
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.12	-0.00	14	57%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.09
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	14	37%	-0.08	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	31.5	16.4	23.4	2.4	33.3	131.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.9%

DAL +4.9%

LAC -10.0%

DAL +25.4%

DAL +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	LAC	NBA	DAL	LAC	NBA
this game	15.4	17.1	15.5	106.7	103.4	101.6
season	15.1	15.4		108.6	100.2
opponent	15.4	15.3		104.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.1	14.8	15.1	17.9	15.4
LAC	18.9	19.5	14.3	16.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	76	73	1.03	-0.53	1.57	0.39	22	-16	38	15.5	15.1	0.33	17.2	17.0	0.18
Steve Nash	69	68	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.45	12	-6	18	14.7	17.7	-2.99	16.6	18.9	-2.30
Michael Finley	80	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	-1	8	15.6	14.2	1.38	16.9	18.5	-1.60
Raef LaFrentz	53	53	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	0	6	15.5	15.4	0.07	17.3	17.0	0.29
Shawn Bradley	62	60	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.24	-3	9	-12	15.6	15.0	0.66	17.1	17.2	-0.11
Adrian Griffin	65	62	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	8	-10	14.9	16.8	-1.91	16.7	18.2	-1.42
Walt Williams	13	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	9	-12	16.8	15.2	1.66	18.6	16.9	1.72
Nick Van Exel	32	30	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.07	-9	15	-24	16.5	14.8	1.62	18.8	16.3	2.52

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Maggette	62	66	0.12	-0.61	0.73	0.06	2	-8	10	16.8	18.0	-1.25	15.2	16.1	-0.90
Michael Olowokandi	74	78	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.05	4	-10	14	17.1	17.3	-0.19	15.5	14.7	0.78
Melvin Ely	6	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-2	-2	20.8	16.9	3.96	14.8	15.5	-0.66
Tremaine Fowlkes	20	19	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-3	0	20.9	16.0	4.94	14.3	15.7	-1.47
Lamar Odom	75	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-3	0	16.5	21.2	-4.76	15.5	14.9	0.59
Elton Brand	69	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	0	-6	16.7	18.8	-2.12	15.9	13.6	2.33
Sean Rooks	7	7	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.28	-6	0	-6	14.3	17.4	-3.11	14.7	15.5	-0.77
Andre Miller	87	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	17.1	0.0	17.15	15.4	0.0	15.42
Keyon Dooling	35	33	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.38	-8	2	-10	17.9	16.7	1.23	15.4	15.4	-0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.1,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.42,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.4,0.55,0.23,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, IND 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.05,0,0	91.8%
BOS 98, BKN 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.22,0.03,0.05,0	90.7%
PHX 106, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.59,0.4,0.31,0.43,0.23,0.08,0	90.7%