NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	110		Excitement	8.6 [164]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +35.8%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	20.3 [23]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -21.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,0.36	-0.04	0.40	0.00	13	57%	0.45	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.24	0.05	0.18	-0.00	18	64%	0.31	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.09
Michael Redd	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	15	53%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	11	73%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.01	12	54%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	25	61%	0.14	2	-0.05	16	87%	0.03
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	10	57%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Popeye Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	11	27%	-0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	19	41%	-0.13	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.17,-0.11,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	20	38%	-0.15	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	27.2	16.4	21.4	2.3	36.9	130.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +108.1%

DAL -12.4%

DAL -30.6%

DAL -15.6%

MIL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DAL	NBA	MIL	DAL	NBA
this game	13.1	15.4	15.5	108.9	105.9	101.6
season	15.4	15.1		106.3	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.8		102.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.0	12.0	13.4	11.8	13.1
DAL	12.2	15.3	16.0	18.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	73	75	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.37	14	-11	25	13.0	13.3	-0.29	16.5	12.5	3.95
Anthony Mason	76	77	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.37	14	-11	25	13.1	13.0	0.05	16.1	13.2	2.98
Tim Thomas	70	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	0	3	13.1	13.1	0.02	16.1	13.7	2.45
Ray Allen	70	70	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	-1	5	13.6	11.8	1.84	15.6	15.0	0.58
Jason Caffey	50	48	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.09	12	-9	21	12.5	13.6	-1.15	16.2	14.7	1.51
Michael Redd	85	84	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.33	-4	7	-11	13.3	12.1	1.13	14.9	18.0	-3.08
Kevin Ollie	36	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.34	-6	9	-15	12.1	13.6	-1.46	13.9	16.3	-2.45
Marcus Haislip	21	19	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	7	-11	12.8	13.2	-0.40	13.3	15.9	-2.68
Ervin Johnson	14	14	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	13	-23	13.1	13.1	-0.01	10.9	16.2	-5.32
Dan Gadzuric	10	10	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.01	-8	11	-19	15.0	12.9	2.13	12.8	15.7	-2.93

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	8	9	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-7	11	14.2	15.5	-1.29	13.4	13.0	0.40
Adrian Griffin	17	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	2	-7	15.5	15.4	0.11	11.2	13.5	-2.33
Raja Bell	83	84	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.36	10	-13	23	14.6	19.4	-4.81	13.3	12.1	1.23
Raef LaFrentz	33	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	3	-9	15.1	15.6	-0.56	13.7	12.8	0.94
Nick Van Exel	45	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	2	-7	15.4	15.4	-0.02	12.1	13.8	-1.71
Shawn Bradley	61	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.33	2	-5	7	16.3	14.1	2.25	13.5	12.4	1.17
Michael Finley	84	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-4	5	15.4	15.5	-0.11	13.5	11.2	2.22
Dirk Nowitzki	101	101	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	0	-3	15.4	0.0	15.44	13.1	0.0	13.08
Steve Nash	73	71	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.48	-13	10	-23	16.0	14.0	1.94	12.7	13.9	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.68,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.62,0.79,0.84,0.92,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, PHX 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.84,0.68,0.74,0	90.3%
DET 102, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.79,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.45,0.63,0.67,0.83,0	90.2%
DEN 96, LAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.55,0.48,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.63,0.78,0.73,0	88.5%