NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	94		Excitement	10.1 [59]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +15.1%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	1.6 [749]		LVP	Baron Davis (NOH): -31.9%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	8	87%	0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	3	117%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Courtney Alexander	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	6	35%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	30%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Robert Traylor	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	3	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
David Wesley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	20	48%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.29,-0.4,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.17,-0.19	-0.16	-0.04	-0.01	23	33%	-0.11	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
George Lynch	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.10	-0.02	3	10%	-0.12	3	-0.11	4	25%	-0.06
Baron Davis	-0.32	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.11,0.02,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.29,-0.32	-0.10	-0.23	-0.01	18	43%	-0.24	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.06

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.08	0.04	13	81%	0.26	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	5	56%	0.08	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	5	40%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.06	0.01	10	73%	0.13	3	-0.16	6	83%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.03	-0.02	26	48%	0.04	3	-0.07	9	56%	-0.05
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	8	40%	-0.11	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.09	-0.20	-0.00	6	29%	-0.22	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.7	2.7	39.7	15.6	25.6	2.5	37.3	2.6	19.2	167.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +69.7%

SAS +8.3%

NOH -8.0%

NOH -19.2%

NOH -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAS	NBA	NOH	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.3	15.5	92.2	94.3	101.6
season	15.9	15.7		101.6	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.6		96.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOH	15.2	14.5	14.0	15.5	21.7	15.4
SAS	13.7	15.5	16.6	17.3	11.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	20	20	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.12	6	-11	17	13.6	15.8	-2.24	14.8	15.4	-0.59
Bryce Drew	22	21	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-7	9	14.4	15.7	-1.32	14.9	15.4	-0.52
P.J. Brown	48	50	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-5	5	15.0	15.8	-0.80	16.3	14.5	1.83
Courtney Alexander	25	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-4	3	14.5	15.7	-1.17	14.3	15.7	-1.35
George Lynch	41	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-1	-3	14.5	16.0	-1.57	14.2	16.1	-1.93
Jamaal Magloire	76	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-4	3	16.1	13.3	2.86	15.7	14.0	1.71
Robert Traylor	38	37	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	15.5	15.3	0.20	15.2	15.4	-0.12
David Wesley	78	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.29	-5	0	-5	15.7	14.5	1.13	15.3	15.5	-0.17
Baron Davis	80	84	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	2	-9	15.7	14.4	1.32	15.4	14.9	0.52
Jamal Mashburn	82	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	6	-17	15.8	13.6	2.24	15.4	14.8	0.59

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	99	96	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	-3	11	15.5	12.0	3.53	15.7	10.0	5.74
Bruce Bowen	93	89	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.33	6	-1	7	15.2	16.1	-0.86	15.5	15.0	0.46
David Robinson	49	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	5	-5	15.8	14.9	0.85	15.7	15.1	0.56
Steven Smith	52	55	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.28	1	4	-3	15.5	15.1	0.39	14.5	16.5	-2.02
Steve Kerr	37	36	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	6	-7	16.2	14.8	1.42	16.0	15.1	0.88
Danny Ferry	7	7	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	4	-3	11.9	15.6	-3.71	9.7	15.8	-6.11
Stephen Jackson	49	46	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	6	-7	16.2	14.6	1.61	15.7	15.2	0.50
Tony Parker	61	59	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.14	2	3	-1	15.2	15.5	-0.26	13.6	17.9	-4.29
Malik Rose	60	55	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.16	-1	6	-7	14.9	15.8	-0.87	15.4	15.4	-0.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.45,0.57,0.59,0.46,0.53,0.64,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 115, MIN 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.56,0.78,0.78,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.95,0.96,1	90.6%
PHI 95, NOH 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.85,0.99,1	90.2%
PHI 97, DET 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.53,0.64,0.85,0.78,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.28,0.54,0.55,0.71,0.97,0.9,1	89.6%