NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	80		Excitement	5.1 [786]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +1.5%
Denver Nuggets	75		Comeback	1.4 [1161]		LVP	Donnell Harvey (DEN): -18.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.04	27	51%	0.07	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.02
Walt Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	11	36%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	60%	0.07	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.05
Raja Bell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	11	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	13	30%	-0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.00	0.03	11	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	11	100%	0.06
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13	62%	0.11	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	8	56%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.17	-0.02	-0.04	7	23%	-0.12	2	-0.03	8	37%	-0.06
Vincent Yarbrough	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	9	22%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	0.01	7	41%	-0.10	4	-0.08	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	541.8	2.5	29.3	16.4	26.6	2.6	32.2	651.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +15.5%

DAL +12.6%

DEN -7.2%

DAL +28.4%

DAL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	14.6	15.5	87.0	81.5	101.6
season	15.1	15.7		108.6	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		99.4	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.1	16.2	16.2	18.2	16.7
DEN	15.2	13.8	14.5	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	85	84	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	-1	7	16.8	14.9	1.95	14.4	17.6	-3.27
Shawn Bradley	85	84	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	-2	9	16.6	17.9	-1.29	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Raef LaFrentz	56	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-6	17	17.2	15.8	1.36	14.5	14.9	-0.41
Steve Nash	53	53	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	2	1	16.6	16.7	-0.05	15.3	13.7	1.65
Dirk Nowitzki	61	61	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	3	-1	16.1	17.7	-1.58	15.5	13.0	2.43
Nick Van Exel	60	62	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.30	1	4	-3	17.4	15.3	2.07	14.2	15.5	-1.32
Raja Bell	26	26	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	5	-5	14.1	17.7	-3.55	15.6	14.3	1.36
Walt Williams	15	16	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	6	-7	16.4	16.7	-0.31	15.0	14.6	0.43
Popeye Jones	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.00	-1	6	-7	17.7	16.5	1.16	9.7	15.2	-5.54
Adrian Griffin	9	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	8	-11	18.4	16.5	1.97	14.2	14.7	-0.43

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	9	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-1	-3	14.2	14.7	-0.46	15.3	16.8	-1.47
Vincent Yarbrough	34	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-1	-3	16.5	13.6	2.90	16.7	16.6	0.13
Junior Harrington	60	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-9	13	14.9	14.2	0.65	17.3	15.3	1.97
Nene	68	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.35	5	-10	15	15.3	12.8	2.45	16.7	16.5	0.19
Donnell Harvey	61	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-7	9	14.2	15.5	-1.32	16.7	16.6	0.14
Mark Blount	35	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	1	-7	13.3	15.5	-2.14	16.9	16.5	0.38
Chris Whitney	27	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	2	-9	14.4	14.7	-0.33	15.7	17.0	-1.35
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	31	30	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	2	-9	15.5	14.2	1.32	16.6	16.7	-0.14
Rodney White	63	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	13.5	17.0	-3.49	16.1	17.7	-1.63
Juwan Howard	72	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	0	-5	14.7	14.3	0.44	16.9	15.8	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 94, MIN 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.9%
NYK 93, OKC 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	95.6%
GSW 118, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%