NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	3.2 [1123]		MVP	Mike James (MIA): +6.8%
Boston Celtics	81		Comeback	1.4 [170]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -19.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	65%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	71%	0.05	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Travis Best	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	13	37%	-0.03	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	17	49%	-0.01	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	13	50%	0.02	5	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	12	67%	0.05	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Bruno Sundov	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	4	60%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	16	51%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	-0.04	5	25%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.26	-0.01	-0.07	13	44%	-0.09	8	-0.11	15	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	27.5	15.6	27.2	2.4	32.6	132.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.7%

MIA +2.5%

MIA +9.8%

MIA +13.1%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.9	14.1	15.5	98.9	86.2	101.6
season	16.3	15.6		94.6	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		99.9	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.5	15.3	15.5	19.4	16.9
BOS	14.6	16.7	13.3	11.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	75	78	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-2	14	17.2	15.4	1.83	13.8	15.4	-1.54
Brian Grant	68	69	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	5	0	17.2	16.0	1.28	13.7	15.1	-1.34
Eddie Jones	76	77	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	2	6	16.8	17.2	-0.42	13.5	16.7	-3.19
Mike James	49	51	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	7	-4	16.8	17.0	-0.18	14.1	14.1	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	40	40	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	1	8	16.8	17.0	-0.18	16.0	12.6	3.40
LaPhonso Ellis	66	67	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	0	10	16.0	19.1	-3.03	14.0	14.3	-0.23
Travis Best	60	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	10	-10	17.2	16.4	0.81	13.1	15.9	-2.84
Anthony Carter	26	27	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	7	-4	17.1	16.8	0.30	16.9	13.0	3.97

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruno Sundov	4	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-7	4	12.2	14.2	-1.93	12.7	17.0	-4.38
Tony Battie	21	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-7	4	16.9	13.3	3.62	18.1	16.6	1.45
Eric Williams	45	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-4	-2	13.7	14.4	-0.70	16.5	17.3	-0.86
Vin Baker	25	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	-3	-4	15.0	13.8	1.18	15.9	17.3	-1.36
Shammond Williams	56	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-7	4	14.1	14.1	-0.02	16.7	17.2	-0.43
Tony Delk	83	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	14.3	12.6	1.65	17.2	14.6	2.67
Paul Pierce	90	88	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-5	0	13.7	22.2	-8.52	16.8	18.5	-1.67
Antoine Walker	89	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-4	-2	14.1	13.2	0.95	17.0	13.7	3.30
Walter McCarty	57	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	1	-12	13.3	15.3	-1.98	17.1	16.6	0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 95, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	96.7%
CLE 111, NYK 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0	96.6%
PHI 115, DET 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%