NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	4.9 [814]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +7.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	111		Comeback	1.6 [989]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -14.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.07	0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	8	81%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	8	52%	0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Flip Murray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	10	59%	0.01	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	7	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Kevin Ollie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02
Michael Redd	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	18	46%	-0.02	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.00
Ray Allen	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	8	22%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	15	42%	-0.06	5	-0.08	6	83%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.02	-0.07	18	52%	0.09	1	-0.02	10	40%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	14	64%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	9	61%	0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	15	45%	0.04	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Soumaila Samake	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	5	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	26.4	16.8	29.3	2.8	30.0	131.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +40.5%

LAL +3.0%

LAL +9.9%

MIL -6.7%

LAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	LAL	NBA	MIL	LAL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.6	15.5	105.3	118.1	101.6
season	15.4	15.4		106.3	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.8		102.8	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.2	15.1	13.8	14.3	15.1
LAL	15.5	13.7	16.2	17.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Flip Murray	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	14.2	15.1	-0.85	17.0	15.5	1.49
Marcus Haislip	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-14	16	13.6	15.2	-1.57	19.7	15.2	4.56
Kevin Ollie	54	53	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.21	3	-15	18	15.0	15.1	-0.15	16.5	14.4	2.14
Ray Allen	33	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-5	-2	15.1	15.1	-0.00	14.2	16.4	-2.19
Jason Caffey	53	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-10	8	14.6	15.7	-1.14	16.7	14.3	2.43
Ervin Johnson	32	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	-4	-4	15.5	14.8	0.66	14.1	16.4	-2.33
Dan Gadzuric	51	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-5	-2	15.2	14.9	0.25	16.1	15.0	1.14
Sam Cassell	65	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-4	-4	14.9	15.5	-0.66	15.4	16.0	-0.61
Toni Kukoc	57	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-4	-4	15.1	15.0	0.11	15.7	15.3	0.43
Tim Thomas	45	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	1	-14	14.9	15.2	-0.29	14.7	16.5	-1.80
Michael Redd	68	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.08	-14	2	-16	15.7	13.4	2.27	15.1	16.6	-1.52

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	58	56	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.05	18	-6	24	14.3	17.7	-3.44	15.2	14.8	0.42
Kobe Bryant	87	87	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.13	10	2	8	15.6	15.9	-0.31	14.9	17.3	-2.40
Kareem Rush	30	30	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	1	10	15.0	15.8	-0.79	14.8	15.2	-0.34
Rick Fox	72	72	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	8	-4	15.8	15.0	0.81	15.2	14.7	0.44
Derek Fisher	66	64	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.10	6	6	0	15.5	15.6	-0.10	15.7	13.6	2.15
Robert Horry	63	63	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	7	-2	15.4	15.9	-0.44	15.7	13.7	1.97
Brian Shaw	24	25	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	4	4	15.0	15.8	-0.83	14.1	15.4	-1.34
Slava Medvedenko	35	35	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.10	4	8	-4	16.4	15.1	1.32	14.3	15.5	-1.24
Samaki Walker	24	25	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	16	-20	18.0	14.7	3.26	15.3	15.0	0.29
Jannero Pargo	5	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	13	-14	18.0	15.4	2.56	9.3	15.5	-6.12
Soumaila Samake	6	7	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	13	-14	16.8	15.5	1.34	15.3	15.0	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 78, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
SAC 84, PHX 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
BOS 99, CLE 116	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.96,1,1,1,1	95.6%